College football scores › Week 7 › Louisville at Syracuse
BEAVER SYR +14.5, wonBEAVER Over 55.5, wonBEAVER had LOU 73% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LOU–SYR) | 34–24 | 37–24 | – | 34–26 | |
| Spread | LOU −10.1 | LOU −13.1 | LOU −14.5 | LOU by 8 | SYR +14.5 ✓ |
| Total | 58.4 | 61.0 | 55.5 | 60 | Over 55.5 ✓ |
| SYR win chance | 27% | – | +455 | Lost |
LOU by 14+
41%
LOU by 1–13
33%
SYR by 1–13
20%
SYR by 14+
7%
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened LOU −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.141 #18Offense EPA / play−0.046 #90
−0.014 #43Defense EPA / play allowed+0.009 #61
+5.3% #17Offense success rate−0.0% #73
−2.6% #36Defense success rate allowed+2.1% #86
+0.175 #14Rushing EPA / play+0.046 #64
+0.108 #31Passing EPA / play−0.055 #78
−0.038 #41Rush defense EPA allowed+0.077 #96
+0.082 #81Pass defense EPA allowed−0.156 #15
+8.2 #16Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.2 #61
+0.0 #63Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.7 #76
Situational
−2.1% #72Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.8% #30
−2.0% #48Passing-down success allowed−1.8% #51
+0.38 #46Points per drive+0.26 #52
−0.36 #40Points per drive allowed+0.12 #70
Trenches
+0.21 #49Line yards per rush−0.05 #96
+0.22 #100Line yards per rush allowed−0.15 #41
−2.2% #65Runs stuffed at the line−0.5% #91
−7.2% #137Opponent runs stuffed+4.5% #15
−0.8% #86Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.5% #44
−1.4% #90Havoc created+0.5% #48
Big plays
+0.210 #5Rushing explosiveness+0.005 #74
+0.137 #62Passing explosiveness+0.242 #26
+1.49 #1Open-field yards per rush−0.13 #64
+0.272 #137Pass explosiveness allowed−0.171 #15
Style and schedule
58% #38Run rate55% #74
−0.7 #24Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.5 #83
Louisville: last 5 games
| W44-20 | Covered | |
| L28-31 | Missed | |
| L27-30 | Missed | |
| W41-31 | Covered | |
| W59-13 | Covered |
Syracuse: last 5 games
| L25-28 | Covered | |
| W42-41 | Missed | |
| L13-27 | Missed | |
| L18-21 | Missed | |
| W66-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekLOUSYR
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LOU −14.5 | 55.5 | LOU −625 · SYR +455 |
| BEAVER fair line | LOU −10.1 | 58.4 | LOU −277 · SYR +277 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| LOU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-2 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 6-1 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 38.7 / 27.4 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 26.3 |
| +11.3 | Avg margin | +5.3 |
| +1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.4 |
| 60.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 78.1 |