College football scores › Week 8 › Massachusetts at UConn
BEAVER CONN −14.5, wonBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had CONN 88% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MASS–CONN) | 17–35 | 23–31 | – | 16–35 | |
| Spread | CONN −18.3 | CONN −7.7 | CONN −14.5 | CONN by 19 | CONN −14.5 ✓ |
| Total | 52.4 | 53.7 | 50.5 | 51 | Over 50.5 ✓ |
| CONN win chance | 88% | – | −520 | Won |
MASS by 14+
2%
MASS by 1–13
10%
CONN by 1–13
27%
CONN by 14+
61%
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened CONN −15.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.123 #110Offense EPA / play−0.007 #70
+0.076 #84Defense EPA / play allowed+0.090 #95
−4.7% #111Offense success rate−2.0% #83
+5.0% #114Defense success rate allowed+5.6% #118
−0.079 #116Rushing EPA / play+0.056 #55
−0.126 #98Passing EPA / play+0.012 #54
+0.070 #92Rush defense EPA allowed−0.018 #52
+0.076 #83Pass defense EPA allowed+0.211 #119
−10.6 #122Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.5 #68
+7.8 #117Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.1 #99
Situational
−5.5% #106Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.3% #55
+3.3% #100Passing-down success allowed+4.7% #113
−1.07 #112Points per drive−0.08 #74
+1.23 #128Points per drive allowed+0.49 #96
Trenches
−0.15 #114Line yards per rush+0.15 #57
+0.45 #126Line yards per rush allowed+0.13 #86
+0.8% #102Runs stuffed at the line−0.8% #83
−4.9% #128Opponent runs stuffed−0.7% #79
+0.2% #108Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.4% #68
−2.7% #112Havoc created−0.6% #68
Big plays
−0.035 #93Rushing explosiveness+0.053 #50
+0.075 #87Passing explosiveness+0.341 #8
−0.70 #131Open-field yards per rush+0.31 #20
+0.108 #114Pass explosiveness allowed−0.011 #56
Style and schedule
59% #33Run rate55% #70
−24.2 #138Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.2 #125
Massachusetts: last 5 games
| L18-25 | Missed | |
| L19-20 | Covered | |
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W35-6 | Covered | |
| W36-14 | Missed |
UConn: last 5 games
| W34-20 | Covered | |
| L41-42 | Covered | |
| L21-24 | Missed | |
| W48-20 | Covered | |
| L14-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMASSCONN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | CONN −14.5 | 50.5 | MASS +390 · CONN −520 |
| BEAVER fair line | CONN −18.3 | 52.4 | MASS +702 · CONN −702 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MASS | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 26.5 / 21.1 | Points for / against | 35.6 / 23.9 |
| +5.4 | Avg margin | +11.7 |
| +4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.8 |
| 54.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.1 |