College football scores › Week 8 › Utah State at Texas State
BEAVER TXST −13.5, lostBEAVER Under 60.5, wonBEAVER had TXST 81% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USU–TXST) | 21–35 | 20–34 | – | 17–20 | |
| Spread | TXST −14.0 | TXST −14.0 | TXST −13.5 | TXST by 3 | TXST −13.5 ✗ |
| Total | 55.2 | 54.8 | 60.5 | 37 | Under 60.5 ✓ |
| TXST win chance | 81% | – | −650 | Won |
USU by 14+
4%
USU by 1–13
15%
TXST by 1–13
31%
TXST by 14+
50%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Texas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.3 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened TXST −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.172 #129Offense EPA / play+0.153 #17
+0.017 #66Defense EPA / play allowed+0.076 #86
−6.5% #130Offense success rate+6.0% #17
−0.6% #51Defense success rate allowed+3.3% #96
−0.096 #120Rushing EPA / play+0.173 #18
−0.241 #126Passing EPA / play+0.183 #14
−0.002 #62Rush defense EPA allowed−0.039 #41
+0.034 #66Pass defense EPA allowed+0.179 #110
−10.7 #123Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.7 #29
−0.4 #64Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.2 #102
Situational
−1.8% #69Passing-down success (3rd & long)+15.2% #1
−2.5% #41Passing-down success allowed+3.7% #106
−1.26 #124Points per drive+0.71 #27
−0.01 #58Points per drive allowed+1.01 #117
Trenches
+0.02 #81Line yards per rush+0.28 #38
−0.10 #55Line yards per rush allowed−0.10 #54
−0.2% #89Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #48
−0.1% #71Opponent runs stuffed+5.9% #11
+2.0% #128Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.5% #28
−2.2% #107Havoc created−2.0% #105
Big plays
+0.028 #66Rushing explosiveness+0.138 #14
+0.265 #17Passing explosiveness+0.240 #23
−0.24 #86Open-field yards per rush+1.26 #2
−0.142 #16Pass explosiveness allowed−0.042 #44
Style and schedule
53% #97Run rate63% #14
−3.2 #47Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.4 #58
Utah State: last 5 games
| W17-16 | Missed | |
| L18-37 | Covered | |
| W21-10 | Covered | |
| L0-33 | Missed | |
| L14-16 | Covered |
Texas State: last 5 games
| W66-27 | Covered | |
| L29-31 | Missed | |
| W63-10 | Covered | |
| W49-35 | Covered | |
| L26-31 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSUTXST
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TXST −13.5 | 60.5 | USU +470 · TXST −650 |
| BEAVER fair line | TXST −14 | 55.2 | USU +422 · TXST −422 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 14.9 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 37.1 / 30.0 |
| -8.1 | Avg margin | +7.1 |
| +1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 61.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.0 |