College football scores › Week 7 › Delaware at Middle Tennessee
BEAVER DEL −1.5, lostBEAVER Over 47.5, wonBEAVER had DEL 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (DEL–MTSU) | 27–22 | 28–19 | – | 30–33 | |
| Spread | DEL −4.7 | DEL −9.2 | DEL −1.5 | MTSU by 3 | DEL −1.5 ✗ |
| Total | 48.9 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 63 | Over 47.5 ✓ |
| MTSU win chance | 38% | – | +100 | Won |
DEL by 14+
28%
DEL by 1–13
34%
MTSU by 1–13
26%
MTSU by 14+
12%
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Delaware (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.100 #106Offense EPA / play−0.142 #119
+0.131 #111Defense EPA / play allowed+0.134 #113
−3.7% #101Offense success rate−5.9% #119
+4.5% #108Defense success rate allowed+7.1% #128
−0.102 #121Rushing EPA / play−0.072 #111
−0.117 #97Passing EPA / play−0.231 #120
+0.049 #80Rush defense EPA allowed+0.144 #125
+0.186 #112Pass defense EPA allowed+0.120 #91
−8.5 #110Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−12.9 #134
+7.6 #118Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.7 #123
Situational
−7.0% #112Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.1% #120
+0.2% #73Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #66
−1.02 #108Points per drive−1.49 #133
+1.03 #117Points per drive allowed+1.17 #123
Trenches
−0.36 #129Line yards per rush+0.04 #83
−0.05 #60Line yards per rush allowed+0.47 #130
+3.2% #130Runs stuffed at the line+0.1% #99
−0.3% #77Opponent runs stuffed−3.9% #123
+4.5% #137Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.3% #98
+0.2% #52Havoc created−5.1% #137
Big plays
−0.192 #132Rushing explosiveness−0.057 #101
+0.216 #32Passing explosiveness−0.050 #122
−0.75 #134Open-field yards per rush−0.67 #129
−0.060 #40Pass explosiveness allowed−0.132 #22
Style and schedule
48% #128Run rate46% #135
−11.3 #98Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−17.4 #131
Delaware: last 5 games
| L14-30 | Missed | |
| L3-42 | Missed | |
| W22-14 | Covered | |
| L26-35 | Covered | |
| W42-7 | Covered |
Middle Tennessee: last 5 games
| L0-55 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| W27-20 | Covered | |
| L26-28 | Covered | |
| W38-14 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekDELMTSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DEL −1.5 | 47.5 | DEL −120 · MTSU +100 |
| BEAVER fair line | DEL −4.7 | 48.9 | DEL −162 · MTSU +162 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| DEL | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 28.3 / 28.4 | Points for / against | 23.3 / 27.6 |
| -0.1 | Avg margin | -4.3 |
| +0.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.1 |