College football scores › Week 8 › South Alabama at Marshall
BEAVER MRSH +3, wonBEAVER Over 65.5, lostBEAVER had USA 52% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USA–MRSH) | 34–33 | 36–29 | – | 13–20 | |
| Spread | USA −0.8 | USA −7.3 | USA −3 | MRSH by 7 | MRSH +3 ✓ |
| Total | 67.5 | 65.0 | 65.5 | 33 | Over 65.5 ✗ |
| MRSH win chance | 48% | – | +105 | Won |
USA by 14+
21%
USA by 1–13
31%
MRSH by 1–13
30%
MRSH by 14+
19%
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Marshall (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.021 #56Offense EPA / play−0.034 #82
+0.210 #135Defense EPA / play allowed+0.274 #138
−2.8% #95Offense success rate−0.8% #76
+8.9% #136Defense success rate allowed+7.2% #129
+0.066 #50Rushing EPA / play−0.041 #101
+0.072 #41Passing EPA / play−0.020 #65
+0.120 #108Rush defense EPA allowed+0.146 #117
+0.230 #122Pass defense EPA allowed+0.375 #138
+4.5 #32Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.9 #110
+11.8 #132Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+11.5 #130
Situational
−3.6% #85Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.4% #77
+11.8% #137Passing-down success allowed+3.6% #105
+0.13 #61Points per drive−1.16 #119
+1.07 #119Points per drive allowed+1.39 #130
Trenches
+0.02 #82Line yards per rush+0.12 #62
+0.14 #90Line yards per rush allowed+0.49 #131
−3.6% #43Runs stuffed at the line−0.3% #87
−0.7% #78Opponent runs stuffed−5.0% #129
−3.0% #33Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.9% #117
−0.7% #73Havoc created−3.6% #129
Big plays
+0.148 #13Rushing explosiveness−0.108 #118
+0.273 #13Passing explosiveness+0.131 #60
−0.33 #100Open-field yards per rush−0.28 #90
+0.037 #84Pass explosiveness allowed+0.126 #121
Style and schedule
67% #8Run rate53% #103
−10.5 #96Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.4 #103
South Alabama: last 5 games
| W56-49 | Covered | |
| W52-35 | Covered | |
| L21-45 | Missed | |
| W41-36 | Missed | |
| L24-28 | Covered |
Marshall: last 5 games
| L21-27 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| W36-35 | Missed | |
| W30-24 | Covered | |
| W28-26 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSAMRSH
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | USA −3 | 65.5 | USA −125 · MRSH +105 |
| BEAVER fair line | USA −0.8 | 67.5 | USA −108 · MRSH +108 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USA | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 35.1 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 21.7 / 30.7 |
| +2.7 | Avg margin | -9.0 |
| +2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 69.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.0 |