College football scores › Week 6 › Virginia Tech at California
BEAVER CAL +10, wonBEAVER Over 53.5, lostBEAVER had VT 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (VT–CAL) | 31–26 | 33–23 | – | 20–25 | |
| Spread | VT −5.0 | VT −10.8 | VT −10 | CAL by 5 | CAL +10 ✓ |
| Total | 56.9 | 56.0 | 53.5 | 45 | Over 53.5 ✗ |
| CAL win chance | 38% | – | +320 | Won |
VT by 14+
29%
VT by 1–13
33%
CAL by 1–13
26%
CAL by 14+
12%
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for California (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened VT −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.093 #24Offense EPA / play−0.105 #109
+0.068 #81Defense EPA / play allowed+0.072 #83
+4.5% #27Offense success rate−4.1% #108
+0.0% #63Defense success rate allowed−1.4% #47
+0.057 #61Rushing EPA / play−0.159 #132
+0.132 #25Passing EPA / play−0.042 #74
+0.017 #62Rush defense EPA allowed+0.150 #126
+0.123 #94Pass defense EPA allowed−0.011 #46
+5.0 #28Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.8 #86
+2.9 #87Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.9 #97
Situational
+5.8% #15Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #96
−4.3% #24Passing-down success allowed−4.2% #25
+0.99 #17Points per drive−0.73 #96
+0.28 #86Points per drive allowed+0.25 #82
Trenches
−0.04 #97Line yards per rush−0.15 #109
−0.59 #7Line yards per rush allowed+0.21 #106
+1.5% #114Runs stuffed at the line+1.7% #116
+4.9% #14Opponent runs stuffed−5.1% #132
−3.3% #32Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.0% #105
+3.2% #13Havoc created−2.4% #108
Big plays
+0.120 #27Rushing explosiveness−0.004 #78
+0.090 #79Passing explosiveness+0.085 #81
−0.01 #53Open-field yards per rush−0.47 #112
−0.078 #37Pass explosiveness allowed+0.222 #131
Style and schedule
52% #111Run rate44% #136
−17.2 #127Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.4 #85
Virginia Tech: last 5 games
| L33-35 | Missed | |
| W21-14 | Missed | |
| W35-26 | Covered | |
| W44-21 | Covered | |
| W73-3 | Covered |
California: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekVTCAL
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | VT −10 | 53.5 | VT −410 · CAL +320 |
| BEAVER fair line | VT −5 | 56.9 | VT −165 · CAL +165 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| VT | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 3-5 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-3 | Against the spread | 2-6 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 35.0 / 20.5 | Points for / against | 23.4 / 31.6 |
| +14.5 | Avg margin | -8.2 |
| +1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 66.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |