College football scores › Week 8 › San Diego State at Colorado State
BEAVER CSU +1.5, wonBEAVER Under 59.5, lostBEAVER had SDSU 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDSU–CSU) | 30–29 | 34–32 | – | 49–56 | |
| Spread | SDSU −1.0 | SDSU −2.3 | SDSU −1.5 | CSU by 7 | CSU +1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 58.4 | 66.2 | 59.5 | 105 | Under 59.5 ✗ |
| CSU win chance | 47% | – | −115 | Won |
SDSU by 14+
21%
SDSU by 1–13
31%
CSU by 1–13
30%
CSU by 14+
18%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened SDSU −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.161 #125Offense EPA / play+0.050 #39
+0.002 #54Defense EPA / play allowed+0.197 #131
−7.2% #131Offense success rate+0.3% #66
+4.0% #104Defense success rate allowed+10.0% #138
−0.056 #107Rushing EPA / play+0.099 #39
−0.253 #127Passing EPA / play+0.020 #50
+0.006 #65Rush defense EPA allowed+0.201 #135
+0.013 #56Pass defense EPA allowed+0.332 #136
−6.2 #101Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.4 #47
+4.5 #97Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+15.2 #137
Situational
−8.6% #125Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.3% #38
−0.7% #56Passing-down success allowed+12.5% #138
−0.73 #104Points per drive−0.05 #71
+0.59 #100Points per drive allowed+1.59 #132
Trenches
−0.02 #89Line yards per rush−0.19 #118
+0.43 #125Line yards per rush allowed+0.56 #136
+1.5% #116Runs stuffed at the line−0.1% #91
−7.0% #138Opponent runs stuffed−4.9% #126
−0.5% #94Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.1% #103
−1.8% #101Havoc created−1.2% #87
Big plays
+0.083 #37Rushing explosiveness+0.225 #6
+0.223 #29Passing explosiveness+0.157 #51
−0.30 #95Open-field yards per rush+0.46 #11
−0.034 #45Pass explosiveness allowed+0.093 #109
Style and schedule
62% #15Run rate52% #110
−2.6 #42Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.5 #60
San Diego State: last 5 games
| W26-23 | Covered | |
| L14-66 | Missed | |
| W31-29 | Covered | |
| L16-41 | Missed | |
| L13-26 | Missed |
Colorado State: last 5 games
| L27-66 | Missed | |
| L26-56 | Missed | |
| L45-59 | Covered | |
| L23-41 | Missed | |
| W58-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSDSUCSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | SDSU −1.5 | 59.5 | SDSU −105 · CSU −115 |
| BEAVER fair line | SDSU −1 | 58.4 | SDSU −111 · CSU +111 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SDSU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-2 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 7-0 |
| 26.5 / 36.1 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 44.0 |
| -9.6 | Avg margin | -5.4 |
| -9.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.1 |