College football scores › Week 8 › Hawai'i at Northern Illinois
BEAVER NIU +3.5, lostBEAVER Under 48.5, lostBEAVER had NIU 52% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (HAW–NIU) | 24–24 | 26–19 | – | 56–21 | |
| Spread | NIU −0.7 | HAW −7.2 | HAW −3.5 | HAW by 35 | NIU +3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 48.1 | 45.0 | 48.5 | 77 | Under 48.5 ✗ |
| NIU win chance | 52% | – | +124 | Lost |
HAW by 14+
18%
HAW by 1–13
31%
NIU by 1–13
32%
NIU by 14+
20%
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened HAW −7.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.151 #123Offense EPA / play−0.185 #130
+0.171 #125Defense EPA / play allowed+0.185 #129
−4.8% #112Offense success rate−5.4% #117
+6.0% #121Defense success rate allowed+7.9% #135
−0.152 #130Rushing EPA / play−0.003 #86
−0.175 #115Passing EPA / play−0.278 #131
+0.172 #127Rush defense EPA allowed+0.147 #118
+0.133 #100Pass defense EPA allowed−0.259 #2
−12.5 #132Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.6 #127
+4.0 #92Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+9.0 #125
Situational
−8.7% #126Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.5% #135
+3.9% #108Passing-down success allowed+7.4% #126
−1.53 #133Points per drive−1.19 #121
+0.36 #82Points per drive allowed+1.22 #127
Trenches
−0.08 #104Line yards per rush+0.21 #53
+0.32 #118Line yards per rush allowed+0.20 #100
+1.4% #115Runs stuffed at the line−1.5% #73
−3.8% #118Opponent runs stuffed−1.2% #89
+1.5% #124Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.1% #104
−3.2% #125Havoc created−4.4% #135
Big plays
−0.139 #126Rushing explosiveness+0.041 #58
−0.063 #126Passing explosiveness−0.036 #117
−0.49 #114Open-field yards per rush−0.18 #79
−0.046 #41Pass explosiveness allowed−0.227 #5
Style and schedule
40% #138Run rate53% #104
−9.0 #89Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.1 #46
Hawai'i: last 5 games
| L10-21 | Covered | |
| L12-30 | Covered | |
| L16-20 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Missed | |
| W29-19 | Covered |
Northern Illinois: last 5 games
| L23-41 | Missed | |
| L7-28 | Missed | |
| L14-35 | Missed | |
| L17-42 | Covered | |
| L24-28 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekHAWNIU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | HAW −3.5 | 48.5 | HAW −148 · NIU +124 |
| BEAVER fair line | NIU −0.7 | 48.1 | HAW +107 · NIU −107 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| HAW | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 0-7 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 1-3 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 20.8 / 24.5 | Points for / against | 15.1 / 38.6 |
| -3.8 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| -0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.0 |
| 70.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.6 |