College football scores › Week 8 › West Virginia at TCU
BEAVER TCU −10.5, lostBEAVER Under 57.5, wonBEAVER had TCU 81% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WVU–TCU) | 21–35 | 22–30 | – | 24–20 | |
| Spread | TCU −14.3 | TCU −7.9 | TCU −10.5 | WVU by 4 | TCU −10.5 ✗ |
| Total | 55.6 | 52.1 | 57.5 | 44 | Under 57.5 ✓ |
| TCU win chance | 81% | – | −360 | Lost |
WVU by 14+
4%
WVU by 1–13
15%
TCU by 1–13
31%
TCU by 14+
51%
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for TCU (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened TCU −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.031 #49Offense EPA / play−0.021 #76
+0.175 #127Defense EPA / play allowed−0.152 #12
−0.1% #69Offense success rate−1.0% #77
+5.5% #117Defense success rate allowed−6.2% #12
+0.074 #45Rushing EPA / play−0.059 #110
+0.010 #55Passing EPA / play+0.016 #52
+0.025 #72Rush defense EPA allowed−0.220 #3
+0.331 #135Pass defense EPA allowed−0.128 #20
+6.5 #25Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.8 #80
+8.8 #124Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−9.9 #7
Situational
+1.2% #39Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.3% #121
+5.6% #120Passing-down success allowed−4.9% #18
+0.28 #51Points per drive−0.41 #86
+0.40 #88Points per drive allowed−0.91 #13
Trenches
+0.11 #66Line yards per rush−0.31 #129
−0.13 #49Line yards per rush allowed−0.20 #37
−3.5% #46Runs stuffed at the line+2.5% #126
+5.2% #14Opponent runs stuffed−0.4% #73
−2.9% #35Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #83
−1.1% #86Havoc created+1.0% #37
Big plays
+0.110 #24Rushing explosiveness−0.109 #119
+0.577 #2Passing explosiveness+0.245 #22
+0.07 #45Open-field yards per rush−0.29 #94
+0.081 #99Pass explosiveness allowed−0.082 #30
Style and schedule
73% #5Run rate52% #111
−3.5 #50Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.7 #52
West Virginia: last 5 games
| W45-42 | Covered | |
| L31-52 | Missed | |
| L42-45 | Push | |
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| W38-27 | Covered |
TCU: last 5 games
| W17-6 | Covered | |
| L10-17 | Missed | |
| L13-21 | Missed | |
| W31-7 | Covered | |
| W63-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWVUTCU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TCU −10.5 | 57.5 | WVU +285 · TCU −360 |
| BEAVER fair line | TCU −14.3 | 55.6 | WVU +434 · TCU −434 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WVU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 7-1 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 35.9 / 32.2 | Points for / against | 23.4 / 13.9 |
| +3.6 | Avg margin | +9.6 |
| -1.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 71.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.7 |