College football scores › Week 6 › UCF at Oklahoma State
BEAVER UCF +10.5, lostBEAVER Under 53.5, lostBEAVER had OKST 54% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCF–OKST) | 23–25 | 20–31 | – | 28–42 | |
| Spread | OKST −1.6 | OKST −11.0 | OKST −10.5 | OKST by 14 | UCF +10.5 ✗ |
| Total | 48.0 | 50.2 | 53.5 | 70 | Under 53.5 ✗ |
| OKST win chance | 54% | – | −395 | Won |
UCF by 14+
16%
UCF by 1–13
30%
OKST by 1–13
32%
OKST by 14+
22%
Spread: 8.9 pts better than Vegas for UCF (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened OKST −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.062 #90Offense EPA / play−0.027 #75
−0.109 #17Defense EPA / play allowed−0.051 #35
−2.2% #90Offense success rate+2.8% #41
−2.6% #32Defense success rate allowed−1.2% #51
+0.020 #77Rushing EPA / play−0.024 #96
−0.142 #104Passing EPA / play+0.053 #42
−0.080 #24Rush defense EPA allowed−0.019 #46
−0.136 #18Pass defense EPA allowed−0.215 #7
+1.1 #57Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #58
−5.1 #23Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.9 #46
Situational
−2.2% #70Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.8% #90
−5.3% #13Passing-down success allowed−5.8% #12
+0.24 #56Points per drive+0.31 #49
−0.68 #23Points per drive allowed−0.29 #42
Trenches
−0.21 #118Line yards per rush+0.11 #67
−0.38 #17Line yards per rush allowed+0.04 #73
+1.0% #110Runs stuffed at the line−1.7% #72
+0.3% #66Opponent runs stuffed+1.7% #47
−1.3% #70Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.0% #11
+0.3% #54Havoc created+0.6% #45
Big plays
+0.043 #59Rushing explosiveness−0.133 #122
+0.113 #64Passing explosiveness+0.056 #92
+0.33 #20Open-field yards per rush−0.14 #70
−0.136 #19Pass explosiveness allowed−0.056 #46
Style and schedule
56% #66Run rate55% #82
−4.4 #40Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.8 #77
UCF: last 5 games
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W21-13 | Covered | |
| W44-30 | Missed | |
| L7-12 | Covered | |
| W73-6 | Covered |
Oklahoma State: last 4 games
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W39-31 | Covered | |
| L10-24 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUCFOKST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OKST −10.5 | 53.5 | UCF +310 · OKST −395 |
| BEAVER fair line | OKST −1.6 | 48.0 | UCF +117 · OKST −117 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UCF | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 32.7 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 40.0 / 23.7 |
| +9.7 | Avg margin | +16.3 |
| +6.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.3 |
| 60.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |