College football scores › Week 6 › Tulane at Army
BEAVER ARMY −3.5, lostBEAVER Over 48.5, lostBEAVER had ARMY 67% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TULN–ARMY) | 21–28 | 25–20 | – | 17–20 | |
| Spread | ARMY −6.9 | TULN −4.4 | ARMY −3.5 | ARMY by 3 | ARMY −3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 49.9 | 45.2 | 48.5 | 37 | Over 48.5 ✗ |
| ARMY win chance | 67% | – | −205 | Won |
TULN by 14+
9%
TULN by 1–13
24%
ARMY by 1–13
34%
ARMY by 14+
33%
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Army (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened ARMY −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.054 #85Offense EPA / play+0.040 #48
+0.079 #89Defense EPA / play allowed+0.189 #133
−6.5% #127Offense success rate+2.5% #44
+0.6% #70Defense success rate allowed+6.7% #125
+0.031 #72Rushing EPA / play+0.211 #8
−0.178 #110Passing EPA / play−0.096 #88
+0.042 #78Rush defense EPA allowed+0.180 #131
+0.104 #88Pass defense EPA allowed+0.231 #125
−8.5 #113Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.8 #80
−1.8 #47Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.6 #69
Situational
−9.9% #129Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.0% #93
+2.6% #91Passing-down success allowed+5.5% #121
−1.12 #119Points per drive+0.12 #61
−0.42 #38Points per drive allowed+0.30 #87
Trenches
−0.26 #121Line yards per rush+0.43 #19
+0.10 #84Line yards per rush allowed+0.44 #130
+1.1% #112Runs stuffed at the line−6.1% #14
−1.1% #88Opponent runs stuffed−1.0% #86
+1.7% #126Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.7% #2
−2.9% #114Havoc created−3.7% #126
Big plays
+0.156 #15Rushing explosiveness+0.113 #31
+0.174 #41Passing explosiveness+0.170 #43
+0.64 #8Open-field yards per rush+0.20 #31
−0.069 #39Pass explosiveness allowed+0.010 #72
Style and schedule
56% #62Run rate84% #2
−3.4 #38Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−13.4 #110
Tulane: last 4 games
| W24-21 | Missed | |
| L20-31 | Covered | |
| W28-24 | Missed | |
| L3-17 | Missed |
Army: last 4 games
| L29-31 | Missed | |
| W21-17 | Push | |
| L24-28 | Missed | |
| W59-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTULNARMY
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ARMY −3.5 | 48.5 | TULN +170 · ARMY −205 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARMY −6.9 | 49.9 | TULN +202 · ARMY −202 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TULN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 20.3 / 24.6 | Points for / against | 35.3 / 22.1 |
| -4.3 | Avg margin | +13.1 |
| -1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.6 |
| 59.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |