College football scores › Week 8 › Iowa at Minnesota
BEAVER IOWA −7.5, lostBEAVER Over 40.5, lostBEAVER had IOWA 78% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (IOWA–MINN) | 27–15 | 27–18 | – | 10–13 | |
| Spread | IOWA −11.8 | IOWA −8.5 | IOWA −7.5 | MINN by 3 | IOWA −7.5 ✗ |
| Total | 41.2 | 44.8 | 40.5 | 23 | Over 40.5 ✗ |
| MINN win chance | 22% | – | +235 | Won |
IOWA by 14+
44%
IOWA by 1–13
33%
MINN by 1–13
17%
MINN by 14+
5%
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened IOWA −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.106 #25Offense EPA / play−0.085 #102
−0.061 #31Defense EPA / play allowed−0.013 #42
+3.9% #31Offense success rate−2.1% #86
−5.9% #14Defense success rate allowed−0.1% #62
+0.129 #29Rushing EPA / play−0.156 #131
+0.178 #15Passing EPA / play−0.037 #74
−0.171 #9Rush defense EPA allowed+0.086 #97
+0.130 #97Pass defense EPA allowed−0.056 #32
+4.3 #34Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.9 #76
−8.7 #10Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #60
Situational
−4.0% #90Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.1% #127
−4.4% #23Passing-down success allowed+4.3% #112
+0.90 #21Points per drive+0.41 #46
−0.87 #16Points per drive allowed+0.14 #70
Trenches
+0.46 #16Line yards per rush−0.62 #136
−0.29 #25Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #95
−7.3% #8Runs stuffed at the line+3.1% #130
+1.7% #46Opponent runs stuffed−1.0% #82
−5.0% #11Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #48
−0.6% #71Havoc created+3.5% #11
Big plays
+0.102 #30Rushing explosiveness−0.205 #133
−0.029 #116Passing explosiveness+0.065 #94
+0.25 #24Open-field yards per rush−0.60 #124
+0.152 #127Pass explosiveness allowed−0.028 #47
Style and schedule
55% #77Run rate47% #130
−1.5 #34Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.0 #81
Iowa: last 5 games
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| L14-31 | Missed | |
| W20-19 | Covered | |
| W55-0 | Covered | |
| W16-13 | Missed |
Minnesota: last 5 games
| L13-41 | Missed | |
| W20-14 | Covered | |
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| W41-7 | Covered | |
| L13-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekIOWAMINN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | IOWA −7.5 | 40.5 | IOWA −290 · MINN +235 |
| BEAVER fair line | IOWA −11.8 | 41.2 | IOWA −350 · MINN +350 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| IOWA | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 28.0 / 14.3 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 20.1 |
| +13.7 | Avg margin | +6.4 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.8 |
| 53.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.9 |