College football scores › Week 6 › Iowa State at BYU
BEAVER BYU −10.5, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had BYU 85% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ISU–BYU) | 18–34 | 17–33 | – | 10–24 | |
| Spread | BYU −16.5 | BYU −16.1 | BYU −10.5 | BYU by 14 | BYU −10.5 ✓ |
| Total | 52.3 | 49.8 | 46.5 | 34 | Over 46.5 ✗ |
| BYU win chance | 85% | – | −470 | Won |
ISU by 14+
3%
ISU by 1–13
12%
BYU by 1–13
29%
BYU by 14+
56%
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened BYU −14.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.016 #57Offense EPA / play+0.158 #14
+0.030 #71Defense EPA / play allowed−0.115 #13
−0.3% #75Offense success rate+6.0% #14
+1.0% #72Defense success rate allowed−4.1% #21
+0.085 #47Rushing EPA / play+0.260 #3
−0.013 #63Passing EPA / play+0.036 #47
+0.047 #83Rush defense EPA allowed−0.066 #30
+0.033 #67Pass defense EPA allowed−0.115 #21
+3.1 #43Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.9 #39
−0.6 #59Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−6.9 #17
Situational
−3.1% #83Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.8% #106
−5.9% #11Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #65
+0.08 #63Points per drive+0.47 #37
−0.27 #43Points per drive allowed−0.50 #32
Trenches
+0.13 #64Line yards per rush+0.50 #10
+0.15 #90Line yards per rush allowed−0.22 #32
−0.6% #89Runs stuffed at the line−4.1% #35
−2.1% #100Opponent runs stuffed+3.7% #24
−0.9% #77Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.1% #4
−0.5% #67Havoc created+1.1% #38
Big plays
+0.152 #16Rushing explosiveness+0.124 #26
+0.089 #80Passing explosiveness−0.083 #128
+0.24 #27Open-field yards per rush−0.08 #60
+0.124 #111Pass explosiveness allowed−0.080 #36
Style and schedule
61% #24Run rate62% #17
−4.5 #41Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.3 #97
Iowa State: last 5 games
| W45-42 | Push | |
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W55-7 | Covered | |
| L13-16 | Covered | |
| W38-10 | Missed |
BYU: last 4 games
| W17-10 | Covered | |
| W41-23 | Covered | |
| W28-17 | Covered | |
| W63-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekISUBYU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BYU −10.5 | 46.5 | ISU +360 · BYU −470 |
| BEAVER fair line | BYU −16.5 | 52.3 | ISU +566 · BYU −566 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ISU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-4-1 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 25.9 / 24.1 | Points for / against | 33.1 / 18.6 |
| +1.7 | Avg margin | +14.6 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.9 |
| 57.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.1 |