College football scores › Week 8 › Colorado at Oklahoma State
BEAVER COLO +13.5, lostBEAVER Under 56.5, lostBEAVER had OKST 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (COLO–OKST) | 22–27 | 18–33 | – | 24–57 | |
| Spread | OKST −5.0 | OKST −14.3 | OKST −13.5 | OKST by 33 | COLO +13.5 ✗ |
| Total | 49.7 | 51.3 | 56.5 | 81 | Under 56.5 ✗ |
| OKST win chance | 62% | – | −550 | Won |
COLO by 14+
12%
COLO by 1–13
26%
OKST by 1–13
34%
OKST by 14+
28%
Spread: 8.5 pts better than Vegas for Colorado (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 6.8 pts below Vegas (54% historically). Opened OKST −14.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.066 #92Offense EPA / play+0.026 #51
−0.103 #20Defense EPA / play allowed+0.010 #60
−1.1% #79Offense success rate+5.3% #18
−4.7% #21Defense success rate allowed+0.5% #70
−0.088 #119Rushing EPA / play−0.002 #85
−0.035 #71Passing EPA / play+0.100 #32
−0.176 #7Rush defense EPA allowed−0.024 #47
+0.036 #69Pass defense EPA allowed−0.043 #38
−5.7 #97Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.1 #35
−2.4 #43Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.3 #51
Situational
−1.6% #65Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.0% #71
−3.7% #29Passing-down success allowed−3.3% #32
−0.56 #93Points per drive+0.67 #29
−0.29 #44Points per drive allowed−0.25 #46
Trenches
+0.09 #69Line yards per rush+0.22 #48
−0.44 #13Line yards per rush allowed+0.02 #67
−2.6% #59Runs stuffed at the line−3.2% #52
+7.8% #5Opponent runs stuffed+1.8% #43
−1.3% #70Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.2% #21
+3.8% #9Havoc created−0.8% #77
Big plays
−0.173 #130Rushing explosiveness−0.221 #134
+0.146 #55Passing explosiveness+0.094 #78
−0.20 #81Open-field yards per rush−0.10 #66
+0.212 #133Pass explosiveness allowed+0.038 #85
Style and schedule
55% #74Run rate54% #86
+2.4 #14Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.5 #49
Colorado: last 5 games
| L24-27 | Covered | |
| L7-29 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W52-21 | Missed |
Oklahoma State: last 5 games
| L32-35 | Covered | |
| W42-28 | Covered | |
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W39-31 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCOLOOKST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OKST −13.5 | 56.5 | COLO +410 · OKST −550 |
| BEAVER fair line | OKST −5 | 49.7 | COLO +165 · OKST −165 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| COLO | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 20.1 / 30.1 | Points for / against | 40.0 / 23.7 |
| -10.0 | Avg margin | +16.3 |
| -6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.3 |
| 63.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |