College football scores › Week 6 › Missouri State at Western Kentucky
FinalHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, 68°, wind 4 mph
BEAVER WKU −1.5, wonBEAVER Under 56.5, wonBEAVER had WKU 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MOST–WKU) | 23–28 | 30–27 | – | 13–34 | |
| Spread | WKU −5.0 | MOST −2.0 | WKU −1.5 | WKU by 21 | WKU −1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.1 | 57.0 | 56.5 | 47 | Under 56.5 ✓ |
| WKU win chance | 62% | – | +102 | Won |
MOST by 14+
12%
MOST by 1–13
26%
WKU by 1–13
34%
WKU by 14+
29%
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.4 pts below Vegas (54% historically). Opened WKU −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.114 #114Offense EPA / play−0.177 #126
+0.129 #114Defense EPA / play allowed+0.160 #124
−4.9% #115Offense success rate−4.7% #112
+7.0% #129Defense success rate allowed+3.2% #96
−0.057 #109Rushing EPA / play−0.136 #125
−0.141 #102Passing EPA / play−0.200 #116
+0.083 #98Rush defense EPA allowed+0.182 #132
+0.162 #108Pass defense EPA allowed+0.067 #80
−7.3 #104Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.8 #106
+9.1 #126Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+10.4 #130
Situational
−11.6% #136Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.7% #78
+5.4% #118Passing-down success allowed+7.7% #131
−0.52 #93Points per drive−0.46 #88
+1.33 #129Points per drive allowed+1.56 #134
Trenches
−0.05 #98Line yards per rush−0.43 #131
+0.21 #103Line yards per rush allowed+0.37 #122
−2.0% #68Runs stuffed at the line+4.6% #133
−2.8% #111Opponent runs stuffed−3.3% #120
+2.3% #131Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.2% #100
−2.0% #101Havoc created−3.2% #122
Big plays
−0.083 #107Rushing explosiveness−0.120 #118
+0.091 #78Passing explosiveness+0.135 #56
−0.45 #111Open-field yards per rush−0.72 #131
+0.038 #83Pass explosiveness allowed+0.105 #108
Style and schedule
53% #100Run rate50% #123
−9.3 #83Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.8 #50
Missouri State: last 4 games
| L24-34 | Covered | |
| L24-30 | Missed | |
| W48-14 | Covered | |
| L0-50 | Missed |
Western Kentucky: last 5 games
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| W52-7 | Covered | |
| L0-38 | Covered | |
| L20-70 | Missed | |
| L14-49 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMOSTWKU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WKU −1.5 | 56.5 | MOST −122 · WKU +102 |
| BEAVER fair line | WKU −5 | 50.1 | MOST +166 · WKU −166 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MOST | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-4 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.4 / 34.9 | Points for / against | 21.3 / 30.6 |
| -10.4 | Avg margin | -9.3 |
| -1.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.8 |
| 55.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.1 |