College football scores › Week 7 › FIU at Jacksonville State
BEAVER JXST −3, pushBEAVER Over 43.5, wonBEAVER had JXST 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–JXST) | 20–26 | 20–21 | – | 24–27 | |
| Spread | JXST −6.1 | JXST −1.7 | JXST −3 | JXST by 3 | JXST −3 push |
| Total | 46.2 | 40.8 | 43.5 | 51 | Over 43.5 ✓ |
| JXST win chance | 65% | – | −142 | Won |
FIU by 14+
10%
FIU by 1–13
25%
JXST by 1–13
34%
JXST by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.205 #130Offense EPA / play−0.031 #85
+0.008 #58Defense EPA / play allowed+0.068 #83
−6.3% #125Offense success rate+0.5% #67
−0.5% #54Defense success rate allowed+3.4% #95
−0.171 #134Rushing EPA / play−0.008 #86
−0.245 #124Passing EPA / play−0.031 #70
−0.005 #52Rush defense EPA allowed+0.131 #117
+0.027 #65Pass defense EPA allowed−0.010 #52
−12.7 #133Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.6 #90
−1.7 #49Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.4 #106
Situational
−5.4% #107Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.5% #56
−3.9% #27Passing-down success allowed+0.2% #72
−1.65 #136Points per drive−0.31 #82
−0.16 #49Points per drive allowed+0.89 #114
Trenches
−0.45 #133Line yards per rush−0.10 #103
−0.11 #50Line yards per rush allowed+0.10 #84
+1.7% #116Runs stuffed at the line+0.4% #101
−1.8% #92Opponent runs stuffed−3.2% #116
+0.6% #116Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #79
−0.6% #67Havoc created−1.1% #83
Big plays
−0.210 #134Rushing explosiveness+0.022 #62
+0.007 #108Passing explosiveness+0.031 #100
−0.96 #138Open-field yards per rush−0.31 #90
−0.045 #49Pass explosiveness allowed−0.005 #61
Style and schedule
55% #72Run rate57% #50
−17.2 #129Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.7 #121
FIU: last 5 games
| W22-3 | Covered | |
| W20-3 | Missed | |
| L10-16 | Missed | |
| W33-20 | Covered | |
| L9-19 | Covered |
Jacksonville State: last 5 games
| W27-26 | Missed | |
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| W31-27 | Covered | |
| L27-29 | Missed | |
| W49-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFIUJXST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | JXST −3 | 43.5 | FIU +120 · JXST −142 |
| BEAVER fair line | JXST −6.1 | 46.2 | FIU +187 · JXST −187 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FIU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 20.1 / 16.3 | Points for / against | 27.3 / 22.7 |
| +3.9 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.1 |
| 70.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.7 |