College football scores › Week 8 › Iowa State at Arizona
BEAVER ARIZ −10.5, wonBEAVER Under 51.5, wonBEAVER had ARIZ 82% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ISU–ARIZ) | 17–32 | 21–34 | – | 3–39 | |
| Spread | ARIZ −14.6 | ARIZ −12.7 | ARIZ −10.5 | ARIZ by 36 | ARIZ −10.5 ✓ |
| Total | 49.1 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 42 | Under 51.5 ✓ |
| ARIZ win chance | 82% | – | −375 | Won |
ISU by 14+
4%
ISU by 1–13
14%
ARIZ by 1–13
31%
ARIZ by 14+
51%
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Arizona (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened ARIZ −10.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.015 #72Offense EPA / play+0.063 #36
−0.002 #47Defense EPA / play allowed−0.100 #21
−1.5% #81Offense success rate+3.9% #32
−0.6% #49Defense success rate allowed−4.3% #24
+0.067 #49Rushing EPA / play+0.054 #56
−0.071 #83Passing EPA / play+0.167 #17
−0.005 #57Rush defense EPA allowed−0.063 #33
+0.012 #55Pass defense EPA allowed−0.147 #17
+0.9 #60Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.8 #37
−3.0 #37Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.7 #31
Situational
−5.4% #105Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.5% #20
−4.8% #19Passing-down success allowed+1.5% #87
−0.04 #70Points per drive+0.43 #44
−0.46 #35Points per drive allowed−0.33 #41
Trenches
+0.13 #61Line yards per rush+0.22 #49
+0.03 #68Line yards per rush allowed−0.29 #27
+0.1% #94Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #66
−0.4% #74Opponent runs stuffed+3.6% #27
+0.7% #114Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.4% #69
−0.6% #70Havoc created+1.3% #32
Big plays
+0.119 #21Rushing explosiveness−0.046 #94
+0.038 #103Passing explosiveness+0.176 #44
+0.20 #30Open-field yards per rush−0.22 #83
+0.147 #125Pass explosiveness allowed+0.126 #122
Style and schedule
60% #26Run rate51% #120
−1.4 #30Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.9 #74
Iowa State: last 5 games
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W45-42 | Push | |
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W55-7 | Covered | |
| L13-16 | Covered |
Arizona: last 5 games
| W52-31 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| W34-24 | Missed | |
| W42-17 | Missed | |
| L17-28 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekISUARIZ
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ARIZ −10.5 | 51.5 | ISU +295 · ARIZ −375 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARIZ −14.6 | 49.1 | ISU +463 · ARIZ −463 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ISU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-4-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 25.9 / 24.1 | Points for / against | 36.1 / 16.7 |
| +1.7 | Avg margin | +19.4 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.9 |
| 57.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.6 |