BEAVER Stats · College football · 2026

Playoff Race

Rest of the season simulated thousands of times with BEAVER’s ratings · 12-team field, top 4 seeds get byes

Most likely field

the 12 teams most likely to make it, by average seed

97% to make it · bye

99% to make it · bye

96% to make it · bye

95% to make it · bye

75% to make it

84% to make it

82% to make it

62% to make it

59% to make it

42% to make it

57% to make it

47% to make it

Conference races

Conference	Favorite	Title chance	Next most likely
ACC	1Miami	76%	Wake Forest 14% · SMU 8%
Conference USA	Liberty	69%	Jacksonville State 26% · Western Kentucky 2%
Mountain West	New Mexico	65%	North Dakota State 15% · UNLV 10%
Sun Belt	James Madison	60%	Louisiana Tech 23% · Louisiana 6%
Pac-12	20Boise State	60%	Oregon State 29% · Texas State 9%
Big Ten	2Ohio State	52%	Indiana 27% · UCLA 17%
SEC	3Georgia	52%	Alabama 18% · LSU 11%
Big 12	6Utah	45%	BYU 21% · Texas Tech 16%
American Athletic	UTSA	43%	North Texas 28% · Memphis 14%
Mid-American	Toledo	37%	Ohio 31% · Western Michigan 28%

Every team

#	Team	Conference	Record	Projected	Rating	Conf. title	Playoff	Title
1	5Notre Dame	FBS Independents	6-1	10.5-1.5	+27.6	0%	99%	19%
2	1Miami	ACC	7-0	11.0-1.0	+24.7	76%	97%	11%
3	2Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	10.1-1.9	+28.6	52%	96%	20%
4	3Georgia	SEC	6-1	10.2-1.8	+28.0	52%	95%	19%
5	4Indiana	Big Ten	7-1	10.4-1.6	+20.6	27%	84%	3%
6	10Alabama	SEC	6-2	9.2-2.8	+25.3	18%	82%	9%
7	6Utah	Big 12	7-0	10.5-1.5	+18.5	45%	75%	3%
8	7UCLA	Big Ten	7-0	10.5-1.5	+15.4	17%	62%	1%
9	15LSU	SEC	6-2	8.7-3.3	+24.0	11%	59%	6%
10	11Texas	SEC	5-2	8.7-3.3	+23.7	9%	57%	5%
11	20Boise State	Pac-12	6-1	9.2-1.8	+10.8	60%	47%	<1%
12	8BYU	Big 12	6-1	9.6-2.4	+16.2	21%	42%	1%
13	13Texas Tech	Big 12	6-1	9.5-2.5	+14.5	16%	33%	1%
14	12Ole Miss	SEC	5-2	8.5-3.5	+19.3	3%	29%	1%
15	14Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	9.8-2.2	+13.2	14%	27%	<1%
16	Liberty	Conference USA	6-1	10.3-1.7	+3.5	69%	25%	<1%
17	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-1	10.2-1.8	+4.6	60%	23%	0%
18	New Mexico	Mountain West	6-1	10.0-2.0	+4.0	65%	22%	<1%
19	18Houston	Big 12	6-2	9.1-2.9	+13.7	7%	20%	<1%
20	UTSA	American Athletic	7-1	9.9-2.1	+5.3	43%	18%	<1%
21	22Arizona	Big 12	6-1	9.0-3.0	+13.1	8%	18%	<1%
22	16Tennessee	SEC	6-2	8.5-3.5	+16.5	3%	17%	<1%
23	20Northwestern	Big Ten	6-1	8.4-3.6	+13.5	1%	10%	<1%
24	Iowa	Big Ten	5-2	8.1-3.9	+14.2	1%	9%	<1%
25	9Kentucky	SEC	7-1	8.8-3.2	+11.4	3%	8%	<1%
26	19SMU	ACC	6-1	8.9-3.1	+10.8	8%	8%	<1%
27	Oregon	Big Ten	4-3	7.4-4.6	+18.4	<1%	6%	<1%
28	Nebraska	Big Ten	5-2	7.9-4.1	+13.9	1%	5%	<1%
29	25Wisconsin	Big Ten	5-2	8.4-3.6	+10.6	1%	4%	<1%
30	USC	Big Ten	6-2	7.9-4.1	+14.1	1%	4%	<1%
31	North Texas	American Athletic	5-2	8.6-3.4	+4.2	28%	3%	<1%
32	Oregon State	Pac-12	5-2	7.3-3.7	+5.8	29%	3%	0%
33	17Florida	SEC	5-2	7.6-4.4	+13.5	1%	3%	<1%
34	Louisville	ACC	4-3	7.5-4.5	+12.8	1%	2%	<1%
35	Memphis	American Athletic	6-2	8.6-3.4	+1.9	14%	1%	0%
36	23Missouri	SEC	5-2	7.3-4.7	+12.1	<1%	1%	<1%
37	Toledo	Mid-American	6-2	9.3-2.7	+0.2	37%	1%	0%
38	24Oklahoma State	Big 12	5-2	7.6-4.4	+5.3	1%	1%	<1%
39	Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	5-2	8.3-3.7	−0.9	23%	1%	0%
40	Oklahoma	SEC	4-3	6.4-5.6	+13.0	<1%	<1%	<1%
41	Army	American Athletic	5-2	8.1-3.9	−0.7	12%	<1%	0%
42	South Carolina	SEC	4-3	6.5-5.5	+12.5	<1%	<1%	<1%
43	Texas State	Pac-12	4-3	6.2-4.8	+4.3	9%	<1%	0%
44	Ohio	Mid-American	6-2	8.8-3.2	−2.3	31%	<1%	0%
45	North Dakota State	Mountain West	6-2	9.1-2.9	−4.8	15%	<1%	0%
46	South Florida	American Athletic	5-2	8.1-3.9	−1.5	2%	<1%	0%
47	Duke	ACC	5-2	7.2-4.8	+4.9	<1%	<1%	0%
48	Virginia Tech	ACC	6-2	7.8-4.2	+4.0	<1%	<1%	0%
49	Pittsburgh	ACC	5-3	7.4-4.6	+6.9	<1%	<1%	0%
50	Baylor	Big 12	4-3	6.1-5.9	+6.5	<1%	<1%	0%
51	UCF	Big 12	4-3	7.0-5.0	+4.8	<1%	<1%	0%
52	Cincinnati	Big 12	5-2	6.9-5.1	+3.9	<1%	<1%	0%
53	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	5-2	8.4-3.6	−5.5	26%	<1%	0%
54	Texas A&M	SEC	4-4	5.7-6.3	+13.1	0%	<1%	0%
55	Western Michigan	Mid-American	5-3	8.3-3.7	−0.9	28%	<1%	0%
56	Louisiana	Sun Belt	5-3	8.0-4.0	−1.9	6%	<1%	0%
57	Fresno State	Pac-12	4-3	5.9-5.1	−2.0	2%	<1%	0%
58	Mississippi State	SEC	4-3	6.7-5.3	+7.8	0%	<1%	0%
59	Clemson	ACC	4-3	6.5-5.5	+5.0	<1%	<1%	0%
60	Air Force	Mountain West	5-2	7.8-4.2	−4.9	6%	<1%	0%
61	Auburn	SEC	4-3	6.5-5.5	+8.8	0%	<1%	0%
62	Illinois	Big Ten	4-3	5.9-6.1	+6.1	<1%	<1%	0%
63	Michigan	Big Ten	4-3	6.3-5.7	+9.6	0%	0%	0%
64	Florida State	ACC	3-4	5.8-6.2	+6.8	0%	0%	0%
65	TCU	Big 12	3-4	5.1-6.9	+6.4	<1%	0%	0%
66	Penn State	Big Ten	3-4	6.1-5.9	+5.0	0%	0%	0%
67	North Carolina	ACC	4-3	6.2-5.8	+4.9	<1%	0%	0%
68	Kansas State	Big 12	4-3	6.5-5.5	+4.6	0%	0%	0%
69	Washington	Big Ten	4-3	5.7-6.3	+4.5	0%	0%	0%
70	Kansas	Big 12	3-4	5.1-6.9	+2.9	0%	0%	0%
71	NC State	ACC	3-4	5.7-6.3	+2.6	0%	0%	0%
72	Virginia	ACC	4-4	5.9-6.1	+2.5	<1%	0%	0%
73	Minnesota	Big Ten	5-2	6.4-5.6	+2.2	<1%	0%	0%
74	Arizona State	Big 12	4-3	5.8-6.2	+1.5	0%	0%	0%
75	Purdue	Big Ten	3-4	4.7-7.3	+1.0	0%	0%	0%
76	Arkansas	SEC	3-4	4.0-8.0	+0.6	0%	0%	0%
77	Iowa State	Big 12	3-4	4.8-7.2	−0.8	0%	0%	0%
78	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-5	3.6-8.4	−0.8	0%	0%	0%
79	Michigan State	Big Ten	2-6	3.3-8.7	−1.5	0%	0%	0%
80	Syracuse	ACC	3-4	4.6-7.4	−1.6	0%	0%	0%
81	West Virginia	Big 12	5-3	5.8-6.2	−1.8	0%	0%	0%
82	Georgia Tech	ACC	2-5	3.0-9.0	−2.0	0%	0%	0%
83	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	3-4	6.1-5.9	−2.8	4%	0%	0%
84	Colorado	Big 12	2-5	3.6-8.4	−2.9	0%	0%	0%
85	Boston College	ACC	4-3	5.2-6.8	−3.4	0%	0%	0%
86	UConn	FBS Independents	4-3	6.6-5.4	−4.1	0%	0%	0%
87	East Carolina	American Athletic	3-4	6.0-6.0	−4.5	<1%	0%	0%
88	Rutgers	Big Ten	2-5	3.3-8.7	−4.6	0%	0%	0%
89	Maryland	Big Ten	2-5	3.3-8.7	−4.7	0%	0%	0%
90	UNLV	Mountain West	4-3	7.2-4.8	−5.0	10%	0%	0%
91	Georgia State	Sun Belt	4-3	6.8-5.2	−5.2	1%	0%	0%
92	Tulsa	American Athletic	4-4	6.2-5.8	−5.4	0%	0%	0%
93	Utah State	Pac-12	2-5	3.8-7.2	−5.8	<1%	0%	0%
94	Navy	American Athletic	2-5	4.2-7.8	−6.4	0%	0%	0%
95	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	4-4	6.5-5.5	−6.6	1%	0%	0%
96	Tulane	American Athletic	3-4	5.5-6.5	−7.5	<1%	0%	0%
97	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	5-2	6.5-5.5	−8.2	<1%	0%	0%
98	App State	Sun Belt	5-2	7.6-4.4	−8.3	3%	0%	0%
99	California	ACC	3-5	4.3-7.7	−8.3	0%	0%	0%
100	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	5-3	7.1-4.9	−8.4	3%	0%	0%
101	Washington State	Pac-12	1-7	2.2-8.8	−8.5	0%	0%	0%
102	UAB	American Athletic	4-3	6.0-6.0	−8.7	<1%	0%	0%
103	San Diego State	Pac-12	3-5	4.2-6.8	−8.8	<1%	0%	0%
104	Nevada	Mountain West	3-4	5.0-7.0	−9.0	1%	0%	0%
105	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	2-5	4.4-7.6	−9.8	<1%	0%	0%
106	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	3-4	5.5-6.5	−9.9	2%	0%	0%
107	South Alabama	Sun Belt	4-3	6.2-5.8	−9.9	1%	0%	0%
108	Marshall	Sun Belt	4-3	6.6-5.4	−10.1	<1%	0%	0%
109	Stanford	ACC	4-4	4.7-7.3	−10.2	0%	0%	0%
110	Colorado State	Pac-12	3-4	4.1-6.9	−10.2	<1%	0%	0%
111	Temple	American Athletic	2-5	4.0-8.0	−10.6	<1%	0%	0%
112	Hawai'i	Mountain West	2-6	4.4-7.6	−11.1	0%	0%	0%
113	Florida International	Conference USA	3-4	5.4-6.6	−11.2	<1%	0%	0%
114	Delaware	Conference USA	3-4	5.3-6.7	−11.4	1%	0%	0%
115	Wyoming	Mountain West	5-3	6.6-5.4	−12.3	3%	0%	0%
116	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	1-6	3.5-8.5	−12.8	<1%	0%	0%
117	Troy	Sun Belt	3-4	4.4-7.6	−12.9	<1%	0%	0%
118	Rice	American Athletic	1-7	2.2-9.8	−12.9	0%	0%	0%
119	New Mexico State	Conference USA	3-4	5.2-6.8	−13.6	1%	0%	0%
120	Central Michigan	Mid-American	3-5	5.4-6.6	−13.8	0%	0%	0%
121	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	2-5	3.5-8.5	−14.1	<1%	0%	0%
122	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	4-5	5.3-6.7	−14.2	<1%	0%	0%
123	San José State	Mountain West	4-4	5.8-7.2	−15.0	<1%	0%	0%
124	Buffalo	Mid-American	5-3	6.9-5.1	−15.2	1%	0%	0%
125	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	2-6	3.4-8.6	−15.3	0%	0%	0%
126	Sam Houston	Conference USA	1-6	3.1-8.9	−15.8	0%	0%	0%
127	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	4-3	5.8-6.2	−16.5	<1%	0%	0%
128	Ball State	Mid-American	3-5	4.6-7.4	−17.0	0%	0%	0%
129	Missouri State	Conference USA	2-5	3.6-8.4	−17.0	<1%	0%	0%
130	Kent State	Mid-American	3-5	4.9-7.1	−18.7	<1%	0%	0%
131	Akron	Mid-American	1-7	2.3-9.7	−18.7	0%	0%	0%
132	Bowling Green	Mid-American	2-6	3.2-8.8	−19.5	<1%	0%	0%
133	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	1-6	2.0-10.0	−20.4	0%	0%	0%
134	Massachusetts	Mid-American	4-4	5.4-6.6	−20.7	0%	0%	0%
135	Charlotte	American Athletic	1-6	1.8-10.2	−22.8	0%	0%	0%
136	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0-7	1.2-10.8	−23.3	0%	0%	0%
137	UTEP	Mountain West	1-6	2.1-9.9	−24.2	0%	0%	0%
138	Sacramento State	Mid-American	1-7	1.6-10.4	−28.2	0%	0%	0%