College football scores › Week 7 › UNLV at Air Force
BEAVER AF −1.5, wonBEAVER Over 47.5, wonBEAVER had AF 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–AF) | 22–27 | 24–22 | – | 31–41 | |
| Spread | AF −4.7 | UNLV −1.7 | AF −1.5 | AF by 10 | AF −1.5 ✓ |
| Total | 49.4 | 46.4 | 47.5 | 72 | Over 47.5 ✓ |
| AF win chance | 62% | – | −105 | Won |
UNLV by 14+
12%
UNLV by 1–13
27%
AF by 1–13
34%
AF by 14+
28%
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Air Force (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened UNLV −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.085 #101Offense EPA / play−0.018 #71
−0.006 #49Defense EPA / play allowed+0.093 #100
−5.9% #121Offense success rate+2.4% #46
−0.1% #63Defense success rate allowed+1.5% #81
−0.035 #97Rushing EPA / play+0.147 #21
−0.160 #111Passing EPA / play−0.732 #138
+0.057 #86Rush defense EPA allowed+0.077 #98
−0.064 #33Pass defense EPA allowed+0.122 #92
−5.9 #99Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #96
−1.2 #54Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.0 #86
Situational
−7.7% #116Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.9% #118
+0.7% #78Passing-down success allowed−2.7% #38
−0.88 #104Points per drive−0.51 #93
−0.21 #44Points per drive allowed+0.36 #85
Trenches
−0.05 #94Line yards per rush+0.49 #13
+0.46 #129Line yards per rush allowed+0.34 #119
−0.3% #95Runs stuffed at the line−8.2% #1
−2.1% #97Opponent runs stuffed−2.4% #105
−0.1% #100Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−7.2% #1
+0.4% #50Havoc created−3.8% #130
Big plays
+0.044 #54Rushing explosiveness−0.022 #88
+0.122 #66Passing explosiveness−0.013 #113
−0.02 #55Open-field yards per rush−0.66 #128
+0.144 #120Pass explosiveness allowed+0.067 #89
Style and schedule
59% #34Run rate88% #1
−7.2 #72Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.9 #128
UNLV: last 5 games
| W13-7 | Covered | |
| W39-31 | Covered | |
| W38-10 | Covered | |
| L6-44 | Missed | |
| W21-6 | Covered |
Air Force: last 5 games
| W28-7 | Covered | |
| W14-9 | Covered | |
| W36-33 | Missed | |
| L32-38 | Missed | |
| W34-0 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUNLVAF
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | AF −1.5 | 47.5 | UNLV −115 · AF −105 |
| BEAVER fair line | AF −4.7 | 49.4 | UNLV +160 · AF −160 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UNLV | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.1 / 23.7 | Points for / against | 28.4 / 20.9 |
| +0.4 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| -2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.1 |
| 64.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.3 |