College football scores › Week 8 › Air Force at Wyoming
BEAVER AF −5.5, lostBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had AF 70% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (AF–WYO) | 29–21 | 29–17 | – | 14–28 | |
| Spread | AF −8.1 | AF −12.4 | AF −5.5 | WYO by 14 | AF −5.5 ✗ |
| Total | 49.7 | 46.4 | 44.5 | 42 | Over 44.5 ✗ |
| WYO win chance | 30% | – | +210 | Won |
AF by 14+
35%
AF by 1–13
34%
WYO by 1–13
22%
WYO by 14+
8%
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Air Force (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened AF −6.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.019 #59Offense EPA / play−0.136 #117
+0.104 #103Defense EPA / play allowed+0.146 #115
+3.1% #40Offense success rate−2.9% #96
+3.3% #94Defense success rate allowed+6.3% #124
+0.177 #15Rushing EPA / play+0.003 #82
−0.710 #138Passing EPA / play−0.211 #123
+0.058 #86Rush defense EPA allowed+0.188 #131
+0.173 #109Pass defense EPA allowed+0.133 #99
−3.2 #83Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−13.5 #136
+3.9 #89Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.4 #85
Situational
−6.7% #113Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.7% #98
+1.5% #89Passing-down success allowed+3.4% #102
−0.20 #77Points per drive−1.55 #135
+0.58 #99Points per drive allowed+0.57 #98
Trenches
+0.48 #13Line yards per rush+0.26 #43
+0.31 #116Line yards per rush allowed+0.52 #134
−8.6% #1Runs stuffed at the line−2.2% #67
−2.8% #108Opponent runs stuffed−5.1% #131
−7.9% #1Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.5% #93
−3.5% #128Havoc created−2.7% #113
Big plays
+0.023 #71Rushing explosiveness−0.073 #106
−0.056 #125Passing explosiveness−0.006 #109
−0.48 #112Open-field yards per rush−0.32 #99
−0.011 #57Pass explosiveness allowed−0.100 #24
Style and schedule
89% #1Run rate60% #24
−14.8 #122Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.6 #132
Air Force: last 5 games
| W41-31 | Covered | |
| W28-7 | Covered | |
| W14-9 | Covered | |
| W36-33 | Missed | |
| L32-38 | Missed |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| W41-23 | Covered | |
| W16-13 | Covered | |
| L0-28 | Missed | |
| W27-10 | Covered | |
| L10-24 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAFWYO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | AF −5.5 | 44.5 | AF −258 · WYO +210 |
| BEAVER fair line | AF −8.1 | 49.7 | AF −229 · WYO +229 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| AF | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 4-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 28.4 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 19.5 / 20.0 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | -0.5 |
| +0.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 71.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |