College football scores › Week 6 › UAB at Memphis
BEAVER MEM −14.5, wonBEAVER Over 54.5, lostBEAVER had MEM 85% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–MEM) | 21–37 | 15–39 | – | 13–38 | |
| Spread | MEM −16.7 | MEM −24.2 | MEM −14.5 | MEM by 25 | MEM −14.5 ✓ |
| Total | 57.8 | 53.4 | 54.5 | 51 | Over 54.5 ✗ |
| MEM win chance | 85% | – | −675 | Won |
UAB by 14+
3%
UAB by 1–13
12%
MEM by 1–13
28%
MEM by 14+
57%
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened MEM −14.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.140 #119Offense EPA / play+0.057 #37
+0.074 #86Defense EPA / play allowed+0.109 #105
−2.6% #92Offense success rate+2.8% #40
+6.2% #123Defense success rate allowed+1.1% #76
+0.033 #71Rushing EPA / play+0.086 #46
−0.322 #134Passing EPA / play+0.201 #11
+0.105 #109Rush defense EPA allowed+0.219 #138
+0.002 #53Pass defense EPA allowed+0.009 #58
−9.2 #122Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.7 #33
+6.4 #113Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #82
Situational
−1.3% #62Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.5% #65
+0.4% #80Passing-down success allowed−0.7% #60
−1.06 #113Points per drive+0.32 #48
+0.85 #110Points per drive allowed+0.17 #71
Trenches
+0.15 #61Line yards per rush+0.38 #23
+0.56 #136Line yards per rush allowed+0.24 #110
−4.1% #34Runs stuffed at the line−3.3% #55
−5.3% #133Opponent runs stuffed−3.1% #114
+0.8% #115Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.4% #28
−1.8% #97Havoc created+0.3% #53
Big plays
+0.051 #56Rushing explosiveness+0.055 #53
+0.135 #55Passing explosiveness+0.287 #17
−0.53 #117Open-field yards per rush+0.60 #9
−0.113 #25Pass explosiveness allowed+0.144 #116
Style and schedule
60% #30Run rate59% #31
−16.3 #122Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.9 #106
UAB: last 5 games
Memphis: last 5 games
| W59-8 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Missed | |
| L20-38 | Missed | |
| W42-24 | Covered | |
| W27-21 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUABMEM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MEM −14.5 | 54.5 | UAB +490 · MEM −675 |
| BEAVER fair line | MEM −16.7 | 57.8 | UAB +561 · MEM −561 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UAB | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 23.3 / 24.6 | Points for / against | 36.1 / 23.8 |
| -1.3 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| +1.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |