Touchdown Scorers: Week 5

Javonte Williams

RB · Cowboys vs. Buccaneers

TD

57%anytime TD · usually 53% · fair −134+ Slip

• 75% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual

Bijan Robinson

RB · Falcons vs. Ravens

No TD

56%anytime TD · usually 51% · fair −126+ Slip

• 65% of the team's carries inside the 10

Jeremiyah Love

RB · vs. Lions

No TD

36%usually 32% · fair +177▲ +14%+ Slip

• 36% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Blake Corum

RB · vs. Bills

TD

17%usually 15% · fair +472▲ +13%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Rams at about 29 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bills' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Trey McBride

TE · vs. Lions

TD

42%usually 37% · fair +139▲ +13%+ Slip

• 26% of the team's end-zone targets
• Lions have allowed 0.7 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)
• Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Jahmyr GibbsTD ×2 RB · Lions vs. Cardinals 71% of the team's carries inside the 10	68% +4%	65%	−212	+4%	71% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
2	Kyren WilliamsTD RB · Rams vs. Bills 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	66% +4%	64%	−196	+4%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Rams at about 29 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
3	Javonte Williams★ Best BetTD RB · Cowboys vs. Buccaneers 75% of the team's carries inside the 10	57% +8%	53%	−134	+8%	75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
4	Christian McCaffreyTD RB · 49ers vs. Seahawks 76% of the team's carries inside the 10	56% −5%	59%	−126	−5%	76% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Seahawks have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the 49ers at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
5	Bijan Robinson★ Best BetNo TD RB · Falcons vs. Ravens 65% of the team's carries inside the 10	56% +10%	51%	−126	+10%	65% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
6	Josh AllenTD QB · Bills vs. Rams 37% of the team's carries inside the 10	55% Usual	56%	−124	Usual	37% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
7	James CookTD ×2 RB · Bills vs. Rams 48% of the team's carries inside the 10	54% −4%	56%	−119	−4%	48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
8	Derrick HenryTD RB · Ravens vs. Falcons 86% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% −17%	63%	−109	−17%	86% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Ravens at about 20 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
9	Amon-Ra St. BrownNo TD WR · Lions vs. Cardinals 29% of the team's end-zone targets	51% +4%	49%	−105	+4%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
10	Jonathan TaylorNo TD RB · Colts vs. Steelers 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% −6%	51%	+107	−6%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
11	Puka NacuaTD WR · Rams vs. Bills 24% of the team's end-zone targets	46% +2%	46%	+116	+2%	24% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Rams at about 29 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
12	Chase BrownNo TD RB · Bengals vs. Dolphins 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	46% Usual	46%	+119	Usual	51% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Dolphins have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
13	D'Andre SwiftTD RB · Bears vs. Packers 47% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% +11%	40%	+123	+11%	47% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
14	Davante AdamsTD ×2 WR · Rams vs. Bills 46% of the team's end-zone targets	44% Usual	44%	+126	Usual	46% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Rams at about 29 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
15	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaTD WR · Seahawks vs. 49ers 51% of the team's end-zone targets	44% +1%	43%	+129	+1%	51% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
16	Trey McBrideTD TE · Cardinals vs. Lions 26% of the team's end-zone targets	42% ▲ +13%	37%	+139	▲ +13%	26% of the team's end-zone targets · Lions have allowed 0.7 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4) · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
17	Cam SkatteboNo TD RB · Giants vs. Commanders 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +6%	37%	+156	+6%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
18	Michael WilsonNo TD WR · Cardinals vs. Lions 41% of the team's end-zone targets	39% +12%	35%	+156	+12%	41% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
19	CeeDee LambNo TD WR · Cowboys vs. Buccaneers 39% of the team's end-zone targets	38% +3%	37%	+160	+3%	39% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
20	RJ HarveyNo TD RB · Broncos vs. Chargers A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	38% −2%	39%	+161	−2%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
21	Quinshon JudkinsNo TD RB · Browns vs. Jets 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% +6%	36%	+162	+6%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
22	George KittleNo TD TE · 49ers vs. Seahawks 21% of the team's targets	38% Usual	38%	+162	Usual	21% of the team's targets · Vegas has the 49ers at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
23	Sam LaPortaTD TE · Lions vs. Cardinals 37% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +12%	33%	+169	+12%	37% of the team's end-zone targets · Cardinals have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4) · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
24	David MontgomeryNo TD RB · Texans vs. Titans 54% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% +4%	36%	+170	+4%	54% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
25	Jeremiyah LoveNo TD RB · Cardinals vs. Lions 36% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% ▲ +14%	32%	+177	▲ +14%	36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
26	Drake LondonNo TD WR · Falcons vs. Ravens 38% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +4%	34%	+183	+4%	38% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
27	Jameson WilliamsTD ×2 WR · Lions vs. Cardinals Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	35% +8%	32%	+184	+8%	Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
28	George PickensTD WR · Cowboys vs. Buccaneers 21% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +4%	33%	+189	+4%	21% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
29	Brock BowersTD TE · Raiders vs. Patriots 55% of the team's end-zone targets	34% +10%	31%	+191	+10%	55% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 21 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
30	Bhayshul TutenNo TD RB · Jaguars vs. Eagles	34% +1%	34%	+193	+1%		+ Slip
31	Jaylen WarrenTD ×2 RB · Steelers vs. Colts 39% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% +7%	31%	+201	+7%	39% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
32	Garrett WilsonTD WR · Jets vs. Browns 29% of the team's targets	33% +8%	31%	+203	+8%	29% of the team's targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
33	Christian WatsonTD ×2 WR · Packers vs. Bears 30% of the team's end-zone targets	33% Usual	33%	+205	Usual	30% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
34	Mike EvansTD WR · 49ers vs. Seahawks 40% of the team's end-zone targets	33% −3%	34%	+206	−3%	40% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the 49ers at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
35	Chris OlaveNo TD WR · Saints vs. Vikings 28% of the team's end-zone targets	33% +1%	32%	+206	+1%	28% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
36	Colston LovelandNo TD TE · Bears vs. Packers 21% of the team's targets	32% +7%	30%	+208	+7%	21% of the team's targets	+ Slip
37	Jacory Croskey-MerrittTD RB · Commanders vs. Giants 39% of the team's carries inside the 10	32% +5%	31%	+209	+5%	39% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
38	Aaron JonesTD RB · Vikings vs. Saints 48% of the team's carries inside the 10	32% Usual	32%	+210	Usual	48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
39	Nico CollinsNo TD WR · Texans vs. Titans 54% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +1%	32%	+213	+1%	54% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
40	DK MetcalfNo TD WR · Steelers vs. Colts 24% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +8%	30%	+213	+8%	24% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.