Touchdown Scorers: Week 7

Christian McCaffrey

RB · 49ers vs. Falcons

TD

67%anytime TD · usually 62% · fair −200+ Slip

• 76% of the team's carries inside the 10

D'Andre Swift

RB · Bears vs. Patriots

TD

56%anytime TD · usually 52% · fair −127+ Slip

• 53% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Tough matchup: Patriots have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual

Woody Marks

RB · Texans vs. Giants

No TD

53%anytime TD · usually 46% · fair −111+ Slip

• 52% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Kayshon Boutte

WR · vs. Giants

No TD

18%usually 15% · fair +444▲ +21%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Nico Collins

WR · vs. Giants

No TD

35%usually 29% · fair +185▲ +21%+ Slip

• 31% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Brock Bowers

TE · vs. Rams

No TD

38%usually 32% · fair +164▲ +20%+ Slip

• 45% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Rams' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Tucker Kraft

TE · vs. Lions

TD

33%usually 29% · fair +202▲ +15%+ Slip

• Lions have allowed 0.9 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)
• Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · vs. Buccaneers

No TD

31%usually 27% · fair +226▲ +15%+ Slip

• 30% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Buccaneers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jalen Coker

WR · vs. Buccaneers

No TD

28%usually 25% · fair +253▲ +14%+ Slip

• 23% of the team's targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Buccaneers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Jahmyr GibbsNo TD RB · Lions vs. Packers 75% of the team's carries inside the 10	68% +1%	68%	−216	+1%	75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
2	Christian McCaffrey★ Best BetTD RB · 49ers vs. Falcons 76% of the team's carries inside the 10	67% +7%	62%	−200	+7%	76% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
3	Kyren WilliamsTD RB · Rams vs. Raiders 73% of the team's carries inside the 10	63% +2%	61%	−169	+2%	73% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
4	Javonte WilliamsTD RB · Cowboys vs. Eagles 80% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% −5%	61%	−138	−5%	80% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
5	Bijan RobinsonNo TD RB · Falcons vs. 49ers 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% +3%	56%	−136	+3%	69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
6	Derrick HenryNo TD RB · Ravens vs. Bengals 82% of the team's carries inside the 10	56% −3%	58%	−129	−3%	82% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
7	D'Andre Swift★ Best BetTD RB · Bears vs. Patriots 53% of the team's carries inside the 10	56% +8%	52%	−127	+8%	53% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Patriots have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
8	Kenneth Walker IIINo TD RB · Chiefs vs. Seahawks 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	55% −3%	57%	−125	−3%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
9	Woody Marks★ Best BetNo TD RB · Texans vs. Giants 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% +15%	46%	−111	+15%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
10	Chuba HubbardNo TD RB · Panthers vs. Buccaneers 72% of the team's carries inside the 10	49% +9%	45%	+105	+9%	72% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
11	Chase BrownNo TD RB · Bengals vs. Ravens 55% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% +4%	46%	+108	+4%	55% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
12	Amon-Ra St. BrownNo TD WR · Lions vs. Packers 32% of the team's end-zone targets	48% −1%	48%	+108	−1%	32% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
13	Ashton JeantyTD RB · Raiders vs. Rams 75% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% +9%	43%	+110	+9%	75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
14	Jonathan TaylorTD RB · Colts vs. Vikings 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	47% −11%	53%	+113	−11%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
15	George KittleNo TD TE · 49ers vs. Falcons 32% of the team's end-zone targets	42% +8%	39%	+139	+8%	32% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
16	Ja'Marr ChaseTD WR · Bengals vs. Ravens 32% of the team's end-zone targets	42% +1%	41%	+140	+1%	32% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
17	Aaron JonesNo TD RB · Vikings vs. Colts 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% +8%	38%	+144	+8%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
18	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaTD WR · Seahawks vs. Chiefs 56% of the team's end-zone targets	41% −6%	44%	+145	−6%	56% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.4 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
19	Bucky IrvingTD ×2 RB · Buccaneers vs. Panthers 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% −4%	42%	+146	−4%	51% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
20	Christian WatsonNo TD WR · Packers vs. Lions 43% of the team's end-zone targets	40% +5%	38%	+152	+5%	43% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
21	Sam LaPortaNo TD TE · Lions vs. Packers 26% of the team's end-zone targets	40% −1%	40%	+152	−1%	26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
22	A.J. BrownNo TD WR · Patriots vs. Bears 28% of the team's targets	39% +4%	38%	+154	+4%	28% of the team's targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
23	CeeDee LambTD ×2 WR · Cowboys vs. Eagles 41% of the team's end-zone targets	39% −2%	39%	+158	−2%	41% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
24	J.K. DobbinsTD RB · Broncos vs. Cardinals 54% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +6%	36%	+159	+6%	54% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
25	Brock BowersNo TD TE · Raiders vs. Rams 45% of the team's end-zone targets	38% ▲ +20%	32%	+164	▲ +20%	45% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Rams' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
26	Zay FlowersTD WR · Ravens vs. Bengals 31% of the team's targets	36% −2%	37%	+178	−2%	31% of the team's targets	+ Slip
27	Justin JeffersonNo TD WR · Vikings vs. Colts 49% of the team's end-zone targets	36% +8%	33%	+181	+8%	49% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
28	Jameson WilliamsTD ×2 WR · Lions vs. Packers Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual	35% +1%	35%	+182	+1%	Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
29	George PickensTD WR · Cowboys vs. Eagles 23% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +1%	35%	+185	+1%	23% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
30	Ollie Gordon IITD RB · Dolphins vs. Jets 44% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% −3%	36%	+185	−3%	44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.4 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
31	Nico CollinsNo TD WR · Texans vs. Giants 31% of the team's end-zone targets	35% ▲ +21%	29%	+185	▲ +21%	31% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
32	Rhamondre StevensonTD RB · Patriots vs. Bears 43% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +1%	34%	+186	+1%	43% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
33	Matthew GoldenNo TD WR · Packers vs. Lions 29% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +8%	32%	+187	+8%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
34	Jaylen WarrenNo TD RB · Steelers vs. Saints 47% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% +6%	33%	+191	+6%	47% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Steelers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
35	Trey McBrideTD TE · Cardinals vs. Broncos 20% of the team's end-zone targets	34% −10%	38%	+193	−10%	20% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
36	Garrett WilsonNo TD WR · Jets vs. Dolphins 29% of the team's end-zone targets	34% +6%	32%	+194	+6%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
37	Drake LondonTD WR · Falcons vs. 49ers 32% of the team's end-zone targets	34% +4%	33%	+194	+4%	32% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
38	Quinshon JudkinsTD ×2 RB · Browns vs. Titans 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% +5%	32%	+195	+5%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
39	Jordan AddisonNo TD WR · Vikings vs. Colts 27% of the team's end-zone targets	33% +6%	31%	+199	+6%	27% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
40	Tee HigginsTD WR · Bengals vs. Ravens 21% of the team's targets	33% +3%	32%	+201	+3%	21% of the team's targets	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.