Touchdown Scorers: Week 8

Derrick Henry

RB · Ravens vs. Bills

58%anytime TD · usually 55% · fair −137+ Slip

• 83% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Bills have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Josh Jacobs

RB · Packers vs. Panthers

54%anytime TD · usually 47% · fair −116+ Slip

• 70% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual

Javonte Williams

RB · Cowboys vs. Cardinals

53%anytime TD · usually 47% · fair −113+ Slip

• 79% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual

CeeDee Lamb

WR · vs. Cardinals

35%usually 29% · fair +183▲ +20%+ Slip

• 46% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jakobi Meyers

WR · vs. Colts

27%usually 23% · fair +268▲ +17%+ Slip

• 33% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Jaguars at about 27 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Josh Cameron

WR · vs. Colts

18%usually 15% · fair +454▲ +17%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Jaguars at about 27 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Omar Cooper Jr.

WR · vs. Raiders

24%usually 20% · fair +322▲ +16%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

George Pickens

WR · vs. Cardinals

23%usually 20% · fair +338▲ +15%+ Slip

• 22% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Trey McBride

TE · vs. Cowboys

44%usually 38% · fair +129▲ +15%+ Slip

• 28% of the team's targets
• Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cowboys' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Kyren Williams RB · Rams vs. Chargers 65% of the team's carries inside the 10	64% −1%	65%	−180	−1%	65% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
2	James Cook RB · Bills vs. Ravens 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	63% +2%	61%	−169	+2%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Lions vs. Vikings 76% of the team's carries inside the 10	60% −7%	64%	−149	−7%	76% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
4	Derrick Henry★ Best Bet RB · Ravens vs. Bills 83% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% +5%	55%	−137	+5%	83% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
5	Josh Allen QB · Bills vs. Ravens 36% of the team's carries inside the 10	55% +3%	54%	−123	+3%	36% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
6	Josh Jacobs★ Best Bet RB · Packers vs. Panthers 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	54% ▲ +15%	47%	−116	▲ +15%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
7	Javonte Williams★ Best Bet RB · Cowboys vs. Cardinals 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% +12%	47%	−113	+12%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
8	D'Andre Swift RB · Bears vs. Seahawks 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% −1%	53%	−110	−1%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
9	Jonathan Taylor RB · Colts vs. Jaguars 67% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% −6%	55%	−110	−6%	67% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 20 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
10	Kenneth Walker III RB · Chiefs vs. Broncos 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% −4%	54%	−108	−4%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
11	Bucky Irving RB · Buccaneers vs. Falcons 57% of the team's carries inside the 10	49% +10%	45%	+102	+10%	57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
12	Puka Nacua WR · Rams vs. Chargers 27% of the team's end-zone targets	49% −1%	50%	+104	−1%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
13	Bijan Robinson RB · Falcons vs. Buccaneers 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	49% +2%	48%	+106	+2%	69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
14	Chase Brown RB · Bengals vs. Titans 58% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% +6%	45%	+110	+6%	58% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
15	Ashton Jeanty RB · Raiders vs. Jets 75% of the team's carries inside the 10	46% +12%	41%	+120	+12%	75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
16	Ja'Marr Chase WR · Bengals vs. Titans 34% of the team's end-zone targets	44% +2%	43%	+128	+2%	34% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
17	Trey McBride TE · Cardinals vs. Cowboys 28% of the team's targets	44% ▲ +15%	38%	+129	▲ +15%	28% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cowboys' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
18	Bhayshul Tuten RB · Jaguars vs. Colts Vegas has the Jaguars at about 27 points, 4 more than usual	43% +11%	39%	+131	+11%	Vegas has the Jaguars at about 27 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
19	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Seahawks vs. Bears 55% of the team's end-zone targets	42% +4%	41%	+137	+4%	55% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
20	Tee Higgins WR · Bengals vs. Titans 22% of the team's targets	42% +3%	41%	+138	+3%	22% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
21	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · Lions vs. Vikings 27% of the team's end-zone targets	41% −3%	43%	+141	−3%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
22	Rachaad White RB · Commanders vs. Eagles A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	41% +10%	38%	+141	+10%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
23	A.J. Brown WR · Patriots vs. Dolphins 26% of the team's targets	41% +4%	39%	+146	+4%	26% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
24	Chuba Hubbard RB · Panthers vs. Packers 72% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +5%	37%	+155	+5%	72% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
25	Christian Watson WR · Packers vs. Panthers 36% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +10%	34%	+167	+10%	36% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
26	Zay Flowers WR · Ravens vs. Bills 31% of the team's targets	37% −2%	38%	+170	−2%	31% of the team's targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
27	Rhamondre Stevenson RB · Patriots vs. Dolphins 44% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% Usual	37%	+171	Usual	44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
28	Tony Pollard RB · Titans vs. Bengals 73% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% Usual	37%	+171	Usual	73% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
29	Jameson Williams WR · Lions vs. Vikings 25% of the team's end-zone targets	37% −8%	40%	+173	−8%	25% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
30	Tucker Kraft TE · Packers vs. Panthers Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual	37% +10%	33%	+174	+10%	Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Panthers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
31	Braelon Allen RB · Jets vs. Raiders 35% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% +13%	32%	+178	+13%	35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
32	Emeka Egbuka WR · Buccaneers vs. Falcons 36% of the team's end-zone targets	36% +7%	33%	+180	+7%	36% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
33	Blake Corum RB · Rams vs. Chargers	36% −3%	37%	+180	−3%		+ Slip
34	Parker Washington WR · Jaguars vs. Colts 24% of the team's end-zone targets	36% +12%	32%	+180	+12%	24% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jaguars at about 27 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
35	Sam LaPorta TE · Lions vs. Vikings 21% of the team's end-zone targets	35% −8%	38%	+182	−8%	21% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.2 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
36	Matthew Golden WR · Packers vs. Panthers 29% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +5%	34%	+183	+5%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
37	CeeDee Lamb WR · Cowboys vs. Cardinals 46% of the team's end-zone targets	35% ▲ +20%	29%	+183	▲ +20%	46% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
38	Jayden Daniels QB · Commanders vs. Eagles	35% +6%	33%	+185	+6%		+ Slip
39	Emanuel Wilson RB · Seahawks vs. Bears 45% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +3%	34%	+188	+3%	45% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
40	Garrett Wilson WR · Jets vs. Raiders 26% of the team's targets	34% ▲ +15%	29%	+195	▲ +15%	26% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.