Touchdown Scorers: Week 4

These games were played before the touchdown model launched. Its predictions were made afterward using only information from before each week, with the players who actually played.

Christian McCaffrey

RB · 49ers vs. Broncos

TD

61%anytime TD · usually 58% · fair −157+ Slip

• 77% of the team's carries inside the 10

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Colts vs. Commanders

TD ×2

59%anytime TD · usually 50% · fair −146+ Slip

• 77% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Colts at about 26 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Commanders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Kenneth Walker III

RB · Chiefs vs. Raiders

TD ×2

58%anytime TD · usually 51% · fair −141+ Slip

• 62% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 2 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Cam Skattebo

RB · Giants vs. Cardinals

No TD

53%anytime TD · usually 49% · fair −111+ Slip

• 60% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Cardinals have allowed 1.1 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Chase Brown

RB · Bengals vs. Jaguars

No TD

51%anytime TD · usually 49% · fair −106+ Slip

• 56% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual

Chris Olave

WR · vs. Falcons

No TD

37%usually 30% · fair +173▲ +23%+ Slip

• 30% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Dalton Schultz

TE · vs. Cowboys

No TD

20%usually 16% · fair +410▲ +22%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cowboys' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Chuba Hubbard

RB · vs. Lions

TD ×2

41%usually 35% · fair +142▲ +19%+ Slip

• 62% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 4 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Brock Bowers

TE · vs. Chiefs

TD

34%usually 28% · fair +197▲ +18%+ Slip

• 55% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Chiefs' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jonathan Taylor

RB · vs. Commanders

TD ×2

59%usually 50% · fair −146▲ +18%+ Slip

• 77% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Colts at about 26 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Commanders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Devaughn Vele

WR · vs. Falcons

TD

24%usually 20% · fair +321▲ +16%+ Slip

• 25% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Jahmyr GibbsTD RB · Lions vs. Panthers 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	64% Usual	63%	−175	Usual	69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.1 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
2	Derrick HenryTD RB · Ravens vs. Titans 84% of the team's carries inside the 10	62% +2%	61%	−161	+2%	84% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
3	Christian McCaffrey★ Best BetTD RB · 49ers vs. Broncos 77% of the team's carries inside the 10	61% +5%	58%	−157	+5%	77% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
4	Jonathan Taylor★ Best BetTD ×2 RB · Colts vs. Commanders 77% of the team's carries inside the 10	59% ▲ +18%	50%	−146	▲ +18%	77% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 26 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Commanders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
5	Kenneth Walker III★ Best BetTD ×2 RB · Chiefs vs. Raiders 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% ▲ +14%	51%	−141	▲ +14%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
6	Kyren WilliamsTD ×2 RB · Rams vs. Eagles 68% of the team's carries inside the 10	56% −5%	59%	−125	−5%	68% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Rams at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
7	James CookTD RB · Bills vs. Patriots 43% of the team's carries inside the 10	55% +3%	53%	−122	+3%	43% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 28 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
8	Josh AllenTD QB · Bills vs. Patriots 40% of the team's carries inside the 10	55% +2%	54%	−121	+2%	40% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 28 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
9	Bijan RobinsonTD ×2 RB · Falcons vs. Saints 72% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% +4%	51%	−112	+4%	72% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
10	Cam Skattebo★ Best BetNo TD RB · Giants vs. Cardinals 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% +8%	49%	−111	+8%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cardinals have allowed 1.1 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
11	Chase Brown★ Best BetNo TD RB · Bengals vs. Jaguars 56% of the team's carries inside the 10	51% +6%	49%	−106	+6%	56% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
12	D'Andre SwiftNo TD RB · Bears vs. Jets 57% of the team's carries inside the 10	51% +11%	46%	−103	+11%	57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
13	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaNo TD WR · Seahawks vs. Chargers 51% of the team's end-zone targets	50% +3%	49%	+101	+3%	51% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
14	Amon-Ra St. BrownNo TD WR · Lions vs. Panthers 30% of the team's end-zone targets	49% +4%	48%	+103	+4%	30% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
15	Ja'Marr ChaseNo TD WR · Bengals vs. Jaguars 37% of the team's end-zone targets	48% +9%	44%	+107	+9%	37% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
16	Javonte WilliamsTD ×3 RB · Cowboys vs. Texans 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% −3%	49%	+109	−3%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Texans have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
17	Ashton JeantyNo TD RB · Raiders vs. Chiefs 86% of the team's carries inside the 10	47% +8%	44%	+112	+8%	86% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
18	Tee HigginsNo TD WR · Bengals vs. Jaguars 29% of the team's end-zone targets	44% +8%	41%	+125	+8%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
19	Davante AdamsNo TD WR · Rams vs. Eagles 43% of the team's end-zone targets	43% −4%	45%	+134	−4%	43% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Rams at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
20	Aaron JonesNo TD RB · Vikings vs. Dolphins 48% of the team's carries inside the 10	42% +8%	38%	+140	+8%	48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Dolphins have allowed 1.4 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Vikings at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
21	Chuba HubbardTD ×2 RB · Panthers vs. Lions 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% ▲ +19%	35%	+142	▲ +19%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
22	David MontgomeryNo TD RB · Texans vs. Cowboys 55% of the team's carries inside the 10	40% +12%	36%	+150	+12%	55% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
23	Jeremiyah LoveNo TD RB · Cardinals vs. Giants 42% of the team's carries inside the 10	40% +9%	36%	+152	+9%	42% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
24	George KittleTD TE · 49ers vs. Broncos 21% of the team's targets	39% +3%	38%	+157	+3%	21% of the team's targets	+ Slip
25	Saquon BarkleyNo TD RB · Eagles vs. Rams 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% −14%	45%	+159	−14%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
26	J.K. DobbinsNo TD RB · Broncos vs. 49ers 53% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +2%	38%	+159	+2%	53% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
27	Puka NacuaTD WR · Rams vs. Eagles 25% of the team's end-zone targets	38% −6%	40%	+162	−6%	25% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Rams at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
28	Rashee RiceNo TD WR · Chiefs vs. Raiders 25% of the team's targets	38% +8%	35%	+164	+8%	25% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Raiders have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
29	RJ HarveyNo TD RB · Broncos vs. 49ers A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	37% +1%	37%	+168	+1%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
30	Chris OlaveNo TD WR · Saints vs. Falcons 30% of the team's end-zone targets	37% ▲ +23%	30%	+173	▲ +23%	30% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
31	Omarion HamptonTD RB · Chargers vs. Seahawks 59% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% −13%	41%	+177	−13%	59% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Seahawks have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chargers at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
32	Trey McBrideNo TD TE · Cardinals vs. Giants 35% of the team's end-zone targets	36% ▲ +13%	31%	+181	▲ +13%	35% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
33	Sam LaPortaTD TE · Lions vs. Panthers 32% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +3%	34%	+183	+3%	32% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
34	Tetairoa McMillanTD ×2 WR · Panthers vs. Lions 26% of the team's end-zone targets	35% ▲ +16%	30%	+183	▲ +16%	26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
35	Jaylen WarrenNo TD RB · Steelers vs. Browns 43% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% Usual	34%	+191	Usual	43% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
36	CeeDee LambTD WR · Cowboys vs. Texans 31% of the team's end-zone targets	34% +1%	34%	+192	+1%	31% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
37	George PickensNo TD WR · Cowboys vs. Texans 24% of the team's end-zone targets	34% −2%	35%	+193	−2%	24% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 23 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
38	Drake LondonNo TD WR · Falcons vs. Saints 46% of the team's end-zone targets	34% +3%	33%	+196	+3%	46% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
39	Brock BowersTD TE · Raiders vs. Chiefs 55% of the team's end-zone targets	34% ▲ +18%	28%	+197	▲ +18%	55% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Chiefs' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
40	Jameson WilliamsNo TD WR · Lions vs. Panthers	34% +9%	31%	+198	+9%		+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.