Touchdown Scorers: Week 9

No player clears the bar for Anytime TD this week. Strong matchup edges are uncommon; most weeks have a handful.

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Christian McCaffrey RB · 49ers vs. Raiders 64% of the team's carries inside the 10	46% −25%	61%	+120	−25%	64% of the team's carries inside the 10 · 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
2	Jonathan Taylor RB · Colts vs. Cowboys 67% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% −20%	45%	+175	−20%	67% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Colts projected for 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
3	Kenneth Walker III RB · Chiefs vs. Jets 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% −20%	42%	+198	−20%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Chiefs projected for 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
4	Jahmyr Gibbs RB · Lions vs. Dolphins 76% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −33%	49%	+201	−33%	76% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
5	James Cook RB · Bills vs. Vikings 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −32%	48%	+203	−32%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills projected for 24 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
6	Javonte Williams RB · Cowboys vs. Colts 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −30%	47%	+204	−30%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
7	Derrick Henry RB · Ravens vs. Jaguars 83% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −28%	45%	+205	−28%	83% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Ravens projected for 23 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
8	Kyren Williams RB · Rams vs. Commanders 65% of the team's carries inside the 10	32% −34%	48%	+213	−34%	65% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
9	Woody Marks RB · Texans vs. Chargers 55% of the team's carries inside the 10	30% −22%	38%	+234	−22%	55% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
10	George Kittle TE · 49ers vs. Raiders 27% of the team's end-zone targets	30% −26%	40%	+237	−26%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · Raiders have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
11	D'Andre Swift RB · Bears vs. Buccaneers 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	30% −24%	39%	+239	−24%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
12	Bijan Robinson RB · Falcons vs. Bengals 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	29% −23%	38%	+244	−23%	69% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
13	Josh Allen QB · Bills vs. Vikings 36% of the team's carries inside the 10	29% −26%	39%	+249	−26%	36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills projected for 24 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
14	Josh Jacobs RB · Packers vs. Patriots 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	27% −28%	38%	+266	−28%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
15	Cam Skattebo RB · Giants vs. Eagles A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	27% −21%	34%	+275	−21%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
16	Bucky Irving RB · Buccaneers vs. Bears 57% of the team's carries inside the 10	26% −27%	35%	+288	−27%	57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
17	Ashton Jeanty RB · Raiders vs. 49ers 75% of the team's carries inside the 10	25% −22%	32%	+300	−22%	75% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
18	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · Lions vs. Dolphins 27% of the team's end-zone targets	25% −28%	34%	+306	−28%	27% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
19	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · Seahawks vs. Cardinals 55% of the team's end-zone targets	25% −26%	33%	+306	−26%	55% of the team's end-zone targets · Seahawks projected for 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
20	Quinshon Judkins RB · Browns vs. Saints 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	24% −17%	29%	+310	−17%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
21	J.K. Dobbins RB · Broncos vs. Panthers 57% of the team's carries inside the 10	24% −17%	29%	+312	−17%	57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
22	Puka Nacua WR · Rams vs. Commanders 27% of the team's end-zone targets	24% −36%	37%	+318	−36%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
23	Chuba Hubbard RB · Panthers vs. Broncos 72% of the team's carries inside the 10	24% −18%	29%	+321	−18%	72% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
24	Mike Evans WR · 49ers vs. Raiders 33% of the team's end-zone targets	23% −28%	32%	+331	−28%	33% of the team's end-zone targets · 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
25	Chris Olave WR · Saints vs. Browns 23% of the team's end-zone targets	23% −24%	30%	+339	−24%	23% of the team's end-zone targets · Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
26	Chase Brown RB · Bengals vs. Falcons 58% of the team's carries inside the 10	23% −26%	31%	+340	−26%	58% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
27	Ja'Marr Chase WR · Bengals vs. Falcons 34% of the team's end-zone targets	22% −27%	31%	+351	−27%	34% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
28	CeeDee Lamb WR · Cowboys vs. Colts 46% of the team's end-zone targets	22% −29%	31%	+356	−29%	46% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
29	Omarion Hampton RB · Chargers vs. Texans 63% of the team's carries inside the 10	22% −19%	27%	+360	−19%	63% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Chargers projected for 19 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
30	Bhayshul Tuten RB · Jaguars vs. Ravens	22% −31%	31%	+360	−31%		+ Slip
31	Saquon Barkley RB · Eagles vs. Giants 38% of the team's carries inside the 10	21% −20%	27%	+366	−20%	38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Eagles projected for 19 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
32	Isaiah Likely TE · Giants vs. Eagles 26% of the team's end-zone targets	21% −18%	26%	+370	−18%	26% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
33	Christian Watson WR · Packers vs. Patriots 36% of the team's end-zone targets	21% −32%	30%	+381	−32%	36% of the team's end-zone targets · Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
34	Tee Higgins WR · Bengals vs. Falcons 22% of the team's targets	20% −29%	29%	+389	−29%	22% of the team's targets	+ Slip
35	Kaelon Black RB · 49ers vs. Raiders 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual	20% −15%	24%	+390	−15%	49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
36	Kendre Miller RB · Saints vs. Browns 43% of the team's carries inside the 10	20% −17%	24%	+400	−17%	43% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
37	Aaron Jones RB · Vikings vs. Bills 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	20% −13%	23%	+408	−13%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vikings projected for 24 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
38	Rhamondre Stevenson RB · Patriots vs. Packers 44% of the team's carries inside the 10	20% −23%	26%	+410	−23%	44% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
39	Trey McBride TE · Cardinals vs. Seahawks 28% of the team's targets	19% −23%	25%	+414	−23%	28% of the team's targets · Cardinals projected for 16 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
40	Alvin Kamara RB · Saints vs. Browns Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual	19% −20%	24%	+416	−20%	Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.