Playoff Race

AFC seeds

most likely playoff field, by average seed

1

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · 92% to make it · 25% for the bye

11%

title

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · 92% to make it

9%

title

3

Kansas City Chiefs

5-1 · 91% to make it

8%

title

4

Cincinnati Bengals

4-2 · 80% to make it

5%

title

5

Denver Broncos

5-2 · 82% to make it

4%

title

6

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-2 · 68% to make it

2%

title

7

New England Patriots

4-3 · 73% to make it

4%

title

NFC seeds

most likely playoff field, by average seed

1

San Francisco 49ers

6-1 · 98% to make it · 52% for the bye

17%

title

2

Minnesota Vikings

6-0 · 92% to make it

7%

title

3

Dallas Cowboys

3-4 · 52% to make it

2%

title

4

Detroit Lions

4-2 · 80% to make it

7%

title

5

Seattle Seahawks

4-3 · 78% to make it

9%

title

6

Chicago Bears

5-2 · 65% to make it

4%

title

7

Green Bay Packers

4-3 · 45% to make it

2%

title

Division	Favorite	Title chance	Next most likely
AFC East	Buffalo Bills	72%	New England Patriots 28%
AFC North	Cincinnati Bengals	46%	Pittsburgh Steelers 28% · Baltimore Ravens 14%
AFC South	Jacksonville Jaguars	90%	Houston Texans 6% · Indianapolis Colts 4%
AFC West	Kansas City Chiefs	63%	Denver Broncos 36% · Las Vegas Raiders 1%
NFC East	Dallas Cowboys	48%	New York Giants 38% · Washington Commanders 10%
NFC North	Minnesota Vikings	53%	Detroit Lions 28% · Chicago Bears 13%
NFC South	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	34%	Atlanta Falcons 34% · Carolina Panthers 25%
NFC West	San Francisco 49ers	81%	Seattle Seahawks 17% · Los Angeles Rams 2%

#	Team	Record	Projected	Rating	Division	Playoffs	#1 seed	Super Bowl
1	San Francisco 49ers	6-1	12.7-4.3	+5.8	81%	98%	52%	17%
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	4-2	11.3-5.7	+4.7	90%	92%	13%	9%
3	Buffalo Bills	5-1	11.9-5.1	+4.9	72%	92%	25%	11%
4	Minnesota Vikings	6-0	11.9-5.1	+2.7	53%	92%	25%	7%
5	Kansas City Chiefs	5-1	11.4-5.6	+3.8	63%	91%	26%	8%
6	Denver Broncos	5-2	11.0-6.0	+2.2	36%	82%	11%	4%
7	Cincinnati Bengals	4-2	11.0-6.0	+2.7	46%	80%	10%	5%
8	Detroit Lions	4-2	10.8-6.2	+4.3	28%	80%	11%	7%
9	Seattle Seahawks	4-3	10.7-6.3	+5.6	17%	78%	7%	9%
10	New England Patriots	4-3	10.0-7.0	+3.5	28%	73%	6%	4%
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	5-2	10.5-6.5	+1.1	28%	68%	5%	2%
12	Chicago Bears	5-2	10.4-6.6	+3.5	13%	65%	3%	4%
13	Dallas Cowboys	3-4	8.5-8.5	+0.7	48%	52%	<1%	2%
14	Baltimore Ravens	4-3	9.5-7.5	+2.4	14%	47%	2%	2%
15	Green Bay Packers	4-3	9.4-7.6	+2.0	5%	45%	1%	2%
16	Cleveland Browns	5-2	9.2-7.8	−3.2	12%	42%	1%	<1%
17	New York Giants	4.5-2.5	8.2-8.8	−4.4	38%	41%	<1%	<1%
18	Atlanta Falcons	3-4	7.7-9.3	−0.6	34%	36%	<1%	1%
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-5	7.3-9.7	+0.8	34%	35%	<1%	1%
20	Carolina Panthers	3-3	7.4-9.6	−2.7	25%	27%	<1%	<1%
21	Los Angeles Rams	3-4	8.6-8.4	+3.4	2%	26%	<1%	2%
22	Houston Texans	2-5	7.4-9.6	+0.3	6%	16%	<1%	<1%
23	Washington Commanders	1.5-4.5	6.5-10.5	−2.6	10%	11%	0%	<1%
24	New Orleans Saints	2-5	6.1-10.9	−3.6	8%	9%	0%	<1%
25	Indianapolis Colts	2-5	6.8-10.2	−2.0	4%	7%	<1%	<1%
26	Las Vegas Raiders	3-4	6.9-10.1	−4.1	1%	6%	<1%	<1%
27	Philadelphia Eagles	2-5	5.7-11.3	−5.1	4%	5%	0%	0%
28	New York Jets	2-5	6.0-11.0	−3.4	<1%	2%	0%	<1%
29	Arizona Cardinals	2-5	6.0-11.0	−4.0	<1%	1%	0%	0%
30	Miami Dolphins	1-5	4.3-12.7	−5.8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
31	Los Angeles Chargers	0-6	3.7-13.3	−4.9	0%	<1%	0%	0%
32	Tennessee Titans	1-6	3.5-13.5	−8.1	<1%	<1%	0%	0%

Ties in the standings are broken by record, then division and conference record, then at random, a simplification of the NFL’s full tiebreakers. Rating is points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field.