Touchdown Scorers: Week 2

These games were played before the touchdown model launched. Its predictions were made afterward using only information from before each week, with the players who actually played.

Christian McCaffrey

RB · 49ers vs. Dolphins

TD ×2

60%anytime TD · usually 54% · fair −151+ Slip

• 81% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Dolphins have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual

Javonte Williams

RB · Cowboys vs. Commanders

No TD

57%anytime TD · usually 50% · fair −131+ Slip

• 72% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Commanders have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · vs. Falcons

No TD

33%usually 28% · fair +204▲ +16%+ Slip

• 21% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 23 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jake Ferguson

TE · vs. Commanders

TD ×2

26%usually 23% · fair +282▲ +16%+ Slip

• Commanders have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual

Javonte Williams

RB · vs. Commanders

No TD

57%usually 50% · fair −131▲ +15%+ Slip

• 72% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Commanders have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual

Jalen Coker

WR · vs. Falcons

No TD

31%usually 27% · fair +224▲ +15%+ Slip

• 23% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 23 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

George Kittle

TE · vs. Dolphins

TD

25%usually 22% · fair +295▲ +14%+ Slip

• Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Dolphins' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jayden Daniels

QB · vs. Cowboys

No TD

31%usually 27% · fair +222▲ +14%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Commanders at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cowboys' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Christian McCaffrey★ Best BetTD ×2 RB · 49ers vs. Dolphins 81% of the team's carries inside the 10	60% +11%	54%	−151	+11%	81% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Dolphins have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
2	Kyren WilliamsTD RB · Rams vs. Giants 66% of the team's carries inside the 10	60% +1%	59%	−147	+1%	66% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
3	Derrick HenryTD RB · Ravens vs. Saints 80% of the team's carries inside the 10	59% +5%	56%	−142	+5%	80% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
4	Jahmyr GibbsTD RB · Lions vs. Bills 59% of the team's carries inside the 10	57% −3%	59%	−132	−3%	59% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Lions at about 24 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
5	Javonte Williams★ Best BetNo TD RB · Cowboys vs. Commanders 72% of the team's carries inside the 10	57% ▲ +15%	50%	−131	▲ +15%	72% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Commanders have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
6	Bijan RobinsonNo TD RB · Falcons vs. Panthers 56% of the team's carries inside the 10	51% +2%	50%	−104	+2%	56% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
7	James CookTD RB · Bills vs. Lions 37% of the team's carries inside the 10	50% +4%	48%	−102	+4%	37% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
8	Davante AdamsTD ×2 WR · Rams vs. Giants 38% of the team's end-zone targets	50% +2%	49%	−102	+2%	38% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
9	Josh AllenTD ×2 QB · Bills vs. Lions 37% of the team's carries inside the 10	50% +4%	48%	+101	+4%	37% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
10	Kenneth Walker IIINo TD RB · Chiefs vs. Colts 45% of the team's carries inside the 10	49% +10%	45%	+104	+10%	45% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
11	Chase BrownNo TD RB · Bengals vs. Texans 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% −3%	50%	+107	−3%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Texans have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bengals at about 21 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
12	Amon-Ra St. BrownTD ×2 WR · Lions vs. Bills 27% of the team's end-zone targets	46% −4%	48%	+116	−4%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 24 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
13	Omarion HamptonTD RB · Chargers vs. Raiders 49% of the team's carries inside the 10	46% +7%	43%	+118	+7%	49% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chargers at about 25 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
14	Jonathan TaylorTD ×2 RB · Colts vs. Chiefs 80% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% −8%	49%	+120	−8%	80% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 20 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
15	D'Andre SwiftNo TD RB · Bears vs. Vikings 54% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% +5%	43%	+121	+5%	54% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bears at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
16	Bucky IrvingNo TD RB · Buccaneers vs. Browns 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	43% +3%	41%	+134	+3%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
17	Saquon BarkleyNo TD RB · Eagles vs. Titans 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	42% −2%	43%	+140	−2%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
18	J.K. DobbinsNo TD RB · Broncos vs. Jaguars 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% −5%	43%	+141	−5%	51% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
19	Cam SkatteboNo TD RB · Giants vs. Rams 58% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% −1%	41%	+142	−1%	58% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
20	Ja'Marr ChaseTD ×2 WR · Bengals vs. Texans 25% of the team's end-zone targets	41% −3%	42%	+144	−3%	25% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 21 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
21	George PickensNo TD WR · Cowboys vs. Commanders 22% of the team's end-zone targets	39% +8%	36%	+157	+8%	22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
22	DJ MooreNo TD WR · Bills vs. Lions 26% of the team's end-zone targets	39% +9%	36%	+157	+9%	26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
23	Jacory Croskey-MerrittNo TD RB · Commanders vs. Cowboys 44% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +11%	35%	+159	+11%	44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Commanders at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
24	David MontgomeryNo TD RB · Texans vs. Bengals 63% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% +8%	35%	+161	+8%	63% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Texans at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
25	Dallas GoedertNo TD TE · Eagles vs. Titans 38% of the team's end-zone targets	38% −4%	40%	+161	−4%	38% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
26	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaTD ×3 WR · Seahawks vs. Cardinals 47% of the team's end-zone targets	38% −3%	39%	+162	−3%	47% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Seahawks at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
27	Ashton JeantyNo TD RB · Raiders vs. Chargers 67% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% −2%	39%	+163	−2%	67% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Chargers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
28	De'Von AchaneNo TD RB · Dolphins vs. 49ers 35% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% −9%	41%	+166	−9%	35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 16 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
29	Rashee RiceNo TD WR · Chiefs vs. Colts 30% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +12%	33%	+171	+12%	30% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
30	Rhamondre StevensonNo TD RB · Patriots vs. Steelers 38% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% −3%	38%	+171	−3%	38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
31	Aaron JonesNo TD RB · Vikings vs. Bears 48% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% +1%	36%	+173	+1%	48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
32	Mike EvansNo TD WR · 49ers vs. Dolphins 35% of the team's end-zone targets	36% +4%	34%	+179	+4%	35% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
33	Breece HallNo TD RB · Jets vs. Packers 46% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% +10%	32%	+181	+10%	46% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Jets at about 20 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Packers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
34	CeeDee LambTD ×2 WR · Cowboys vs. Commanders 36% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +11%	31%	+188	+11%	36% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 28 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Commanders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
35	Travis EtienneNo TD RB · Saints vs. Ravens 36% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +1%	34%	+189	+1%	36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
36	Chuba HubbardTD RB · Panthers vs. Falcons 61% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +12%	31%	+189	+12%	61% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Falcons have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Panthers at about 23 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
37	Woody MarksNo TD RB · Texans vs. Bengals 38% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% +3%	33%	+194	+3%	38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Texans at about 24 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
38	Jameson WilliamsNo TD WR · Lions vs. Bills 20% of the team's targets	34% −5%	35%	+198	−5%	20% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 24 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
39	Tee HigginsNo TD WR · Bengals vs. Texans 30% of the team's end-zone targets	33% −1%	34%	+201	−1%	30% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 21 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
40	Drake LondonNo TD WR · Falcons vs. Panthers 55% of the team's end-zone targets	33% −9%	36%	+204	−9%	55% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.