Touchdown Scorers: Week 1

These games were played before the touchdown model launched. Its predictions were made afterward using only information from before each week, with the players who actually played.

Derrick Henry

RB · Ravens vs. Colts

TD ×3

59%anytime TD · usually 56% · fair −142+ Slip

• 79% of the team's carries inside the 10

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Colts vs. Ravens

TD ×2

53%anytime TD · usually 49% · fair −113+ Slip

• 74% of the team's carries inside the 10

Omarion Hampton

RB · vs. Cardinals

TD

30%usually 25% · fair +230▲ +24%+ Slip

• 58% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual

Tony Pollard

RB · vs. Jets

No TD

33%usually 27% · fair +204▲ +23%+ Slip

• 40% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Jets have allowed 1.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Titans at about 20 points, 3 more than usual

Quentin Johnston

WR · vs. Cardinals

No TD

31%usually 26% · fair +218▲ +21%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Tyjae Spears

RB · vs. Jets

No TD

23%usually 19% · fair +342▲ +20%+ Slip

• Jets have allowed 1.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Titans at about 20 points, 3 more than usual

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · vs. Bears

No TD

31%usually 26% · fair +227▲ +19%+ Slip

• 26% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bears' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Tank Bigsby

RB · vs. Commanders

No TD

19%usually 16% · fair +417▲ +18%+ Slip

• Commanders have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Derrick Henry★ Best BetTD ×3 RB · Ravens vs. Colts 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	59% +5%	56%	−142	+5%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
2	Kyren WilliamsTD RB · Rams vs. 49ers 63% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% +3%	57%	−141	+3%	63% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
3	Jahmyr GibbsTD ×2 RB · Lions vs. Saints 44% of the team's carries inside the 10	54% −1%	54%	−117	−1%	44% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
4	Christian McCaffreyNo TD RB · 49ers vs. Rams 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% −5%	56%	−113	−5%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
5	Jonathan Taylor★ Best BetTD ×2 RB · Colts vs. Ravens 74% of the team's carries inside the 10	53% +8%	49%	−113	+8%	74% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
6	Saquon BarkleyNo TD RB · Eagles vs. Commanders 60% of the team's carries inside the 10	50% +6%	47%	+102	+6%	60% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Commanders have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
7	Chase BrownTD RB · Bengals vs. Buccaneers 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% +5%	46%	+107	+5%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
8	Josh AllenTD ×2 QB · Bills vs. Texans Vegas has the Bills at about 23 points, 3 fewer than usual	47% −6%	49%	+115	−6%	Vegas has the Bills at about 23 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
9	Amon-Ra St. BrownTD ×2 WR · Lions vs. Saints 29% of the team's end-zone targets	46% −2%	47%	+118	−2%	29% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
10	Ashton JeantyTD ×2 RB · Raiders vs. Dolphins 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% ▲ +16%	39%	+123	▲ +16%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Dolphins' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
11	James CookNo TD RB · Bills vs. Texans 39% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% −9%	49%	+124	−9%	39% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Texans have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bills at about 23 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
12	Ja'Marr ChaseNo TD WR · Bengals vs. Buccaneers 27% of the team's end-zone targets	44% +2%	43%	+127	+2%	27% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
13	Puka NacuaNo TD WR · Rams vs. 49ers 25% of the team's end-zone targets	44% Usual	44%	+127	Usual	25% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
14	D'Andre SwiftTD ×3 RB · Bears vs. Panthers 56% of the team's carries inside the 10	43% +10%	39%	+132	+10%	56% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bears at about 25 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Panthers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
15	Davante AdamsNo TD WR · Rams vs. 49ers 38% of the team's end-zone targets	42% +1%	42%	+138	+1%	38% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
16	De'Von AchaneNo TD RB · Dolphins vs. Raiders 35% of the team's carries inside the 10	42% Usual	42%	+139	Usual	35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 19 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
17	Bijan RobinsonTD RB · Falcons vs. Steelers 56% of the team's carries inside the 10	40% −20%	50%	+149	−20%	56% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Falcons at about 17 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
18	Javonte WilliamsTD ×2 RB · Cowboys vs. Giants 66% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +9%	36%	+155	+9%	66% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
19	Tee HigginsNo TD WR · Bengals vs. Buccaneers 32% of the team's end-zone targets	39% +4%	37%	+156	+4%	32% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 27 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
20	Kimani VidalNo TD RB · Chargers vs. Cardinals Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	38% +15%	33%	+161	+15%	Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
21	Aaron JonesTD RB · Vikings vs. Packers 54% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% ▲ +14%	34%	+162	▲ +14%	54% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Vikings at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Packers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
22	Zay FlowersTD WR · Ravens vs. Colts 26% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +5%	36%	+167	+5%	26% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
23	Dallas GoedertTD ×2 TE · Eagles vs. Commanders 35% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +3%	36%	+167	+3%	35% of the team's end-zone targets · Commanders have allowed 0.7 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)	+ Slip
24	Bucky IrvingTD RB · Buccaneers vs. Bengals 39% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% Usual	37%	+175	Usual	39% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
25	Chris OlaveNo TD WR · Saints vs. Lions 46% of the team's end-zone targets	36% ▲ +16%	31%	+176	▲ +16%	46% of the team's end-zone targets · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
26	Cam SkatteboTD RB · Giants vs. Cowboys 50% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% +11%	32%	+179	+11%	50% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Giants at about 22 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
27	Woody MarksNo TD RB · Texans vs. Bills 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +3%	34%	+183	+3%	51% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
28	Jaxson DartNo TD QB · Giants vs. Cowboys Cowboys have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to QBs lately (average 0.2)	35% +6%	33%	+188	+6%	Cowboys have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to QBs lately (average 0.2) · Vegas has the Giants at about 22 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
29	Jameson WilliamsNo TD WR · Lions vs. Saints	34% −4%	35%	+196	−4%		+ Slip
30	Ladd McConkeyTD WR · Chargers vs. Cardinals 32% of the team's end-zone targets	33% +14%	29%	+203	+14%	32% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
31	Tony PollardNo TD RB · Titans vs. Jets 40% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% ▲ +23%	27%	+204	▲ +23%	40% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Titans at about 20 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
32	Travis EtienneNo TD RB · Saints vs. Lions 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% +10%	29%	+208	+10%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
33	Jalen HurtsNo TD QB · Eagles vs. Commanders	32% +2%	31%	+212	+2%		+ Slip
34	J.K. DobbinsNo TD RB · Broncos vs. Chiefs 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	32% −14%	37%	+214	−14%	51% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
35	Quentin JohnstonNo TD WR · Chargers vs. Cardinals Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual	31% ▲ +21%	26%	+218	▲ +21%	Vegas has the Chargers at about 28 points, 6 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
36	Rashee RiceTD WR · Chiefs vs. Broncos 30% of the team's end-zone targets	31% −7%	34%	+219	−7%	30% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
37	RJ HarveyNo TD RB · Broncos vs. Chiefs 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	31% −14%	36%	+219	−14%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
38	Kenneth Walker IIITD ×2 RB · Chiefs vs. Broncos 40% of the team's carries inside the 10	31% −7%	34%	+219	−7%	40% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
39	Trey McBrideTD TE · Cardinals vs. Chargers 34% of the team's end-zone targets	31% −17%	37%	+220	−17%	34% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
40	DeVonta SmithNo TD WR · Eagles vs. Commanders 27% of the team's end-zone targets	31% +5%	29%	+224	+5%	27% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.