Touchdown Scorers: Week 6

Kyren Williams

RB · Rams vs. Cardinals

No TD

67%anytime TD · usually 62% · fair −200+ Slip

• 73% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Rams at about 32 points, 6 more than usual

Javonte Williams

RB · Cowboys vs. Packers

TD

65%anytime TD · usually 61% · fair −185+ Slip

• 77% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Christian McCaffrey

RB · 49ers vs. Commanders

TD ×2

64%anytime TD · usually 58% · fair −178+ Slip

• 76% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the 49ers at about 30 points, 6 more than usual

James Cook

RB · Bills vs. Raiders

TD

62%anytime TD · usually 59% · fair −167+ Slip

• 53% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 3 more than usual

Bijan Robinson

RB · Falcons vs. Bears

No TD

59%anytime TD · usually 51% · fair −143+ Slip

• 69% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the Falcons at about 26 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bears' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Isaiah Likely

TE · vs. Saints

TD

30%usually 25% · fair +229▲ +21%+ Slip

• 22% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Giants at about 24 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Saints' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Tyler Higbee

TE · vs. Cardinals

No TD

28%usually 23% · fair +263▲ +20%+ Slip

• Cardinals have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)
• Vegas has the Rams at about 32 points, 6 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Malik Nabers

WR · vs. Saints

No TD

37%usually 31% · fair +174▲ +19%+ Slip

• 48% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Giants at about 24 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Saints' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Hunter Henry

TE · vs. Jets

TD

23%usually 19% · fair +339▲ +18%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Jets' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Brock Bowers

TE · vs. Bills

No TD

36%usually 31% · fair +179▲ +18%+ Slip

• 58% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Raiders at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bills' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Ashton Jeanty

RB · vs. Bills

TD

44%usually 38% · fair +125▲ +17%+ Slip

• 79% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Bills have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
• Vegas has the Raiders at about 24 points, 5 more than usual

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Kyren Williams★ Best BetNo TD RB · Rams vs. Cardinals 73% of the team's carries inside the 10	67% +8%	62%	−200	+8%	73% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Rams at about 32 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
2	Javonte Williams★ Best BetTD RB · Cowboys vs. Packers 77% of the team's carries inside the 10	65% +6%	61%	−185	+6%	77% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
3	Christian McCaffrey★ Best BetTD ×2 RB · 49ers vs. Commanders 76% of the team's carries inside the 10	64% +10%	58%	−178	+10%	76% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the 49ers at about 30 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
4	James Cook★ Best BetTD RB · Bills vs. Raiders 53% of the team's carries inside the 10	62% +6%	59%	−167	+6%	53% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
5	Bijan Robinson★ Best BetNo TD RB · Falcons vs. Bears 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	59% ▲ +16%	51%	−143	▲ +16%	69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Falcons at about 26 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bears' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
6	Jonathan TaylorTD RB · Colts vs. Titans 69% of the team's carries inside the 10	58% ▲ +13%	52%	−140	▲ +13%	69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 26 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Titans' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
7	Josh AllenNo TD QB · Bills vs. Raiders 35% of the team's carries inside the 10	57% +4%	55%	−134	+4%	35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 30 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
8	Kenneth Walker IIITD ×2 RB · Chiefs vs. Chargers 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	54% +1%	53%	−115	+1%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
9	D'Andre SwiftTD ×2 RB · Bears vs. Falcons 47% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% +10%	48%	−110	+10%	47% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
10	Derrick HenryNo TD RB · Ravens vs. Browns 84% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% −12%	59%	−109	−12%	84% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Ravens at about 21 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
11	Puka NacuaNo TD WR · Rams vs. Cardinals 31% of the team's end-zone targets	51% +11%	46%	−103	+11%	31% of the team's end-zone targets · Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Rams at about 32 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
12	Davante AdamsNo TD WR · Rams vs. Cardinals 47% of the team's end-zone targets	48% +11%	43%	+108	+11%	47% of the team's end-zone targets · Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Rams at about 32 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
13	Chuba HubbardTD RB · Panthers vs. Eagles 66% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% +8%	42%	+123	+8%	66% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
14	Ashton JeantyTD RB · Raiders vs. Bills 79% of the team's carries inside the 10	44% ▲ +17%	38%	+125	▲ +17%	79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Raiders at about 24 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
15	George KittleTD TE · 49ers vs. Commanders 21% of the team's targets	41% +4%	40%	+142	+4%	21% of the team's targets · Commanders have allowed 1.0 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4) · Vegas has the 49ers at about 30 points, 6 more than usual	+ Slip
16	Cam SkatteboNo TD RB · Giants vs. Saints 49% of the team's carries inside the 10	39% +13%	35%	+155	+13%	49% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Giants at about 24 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
17	Trey McBrideNo TD TE · Cardinals vs. Rams 24% of the team's end-zone targets	38% −8%	41%	+162	−8%	24% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
18	Rhamondre StevensonNo TD RB · Patriots vs. Jets 42% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% +9%	35%	+162	+9%	42% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
19	Drake LondonNo TD WR · Falcons vs. Bears 29% of the team's targets	38% +10%	34%	+165	+10%	29% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Falcons at about 26 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
20	Woody MarksNo TD RB · Texans vs. Jaguars 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	37% −11%	42%	+168	−11%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Texans at about 20 points, 2 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
21	Christian WatsonNo TD WR · Packers vs. Cowboys 41% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +5%	36%	+168	+5%	41% of the team's end-zone targets · Cowboys have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Packers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
22	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaNo TD WR · Seahawks vs. Broncos 51% of the team's end-zone targets	37% −9%	40%	+173	−9%	51% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Seahawks at about 22 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
23	Malik NabersNo TD WR · Giants vs. Saints 48% of the team's end-zone targets	37% ▲ +19%	31%	+174	▲ +19%	48% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Giants at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Saints' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
24	Brock BowersNo TD TE · Raiders vs. Bills 58% of the team's end-zone targets	36% ▲ +18%	31%	+179	▲ +18%	58% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 24 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bills' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
25	Bucky IrvingNo TD RB · Buccaneers vs. Steelers 51% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% −13%	41%	+185	−13%	51% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
26	George PickensNo TD WR · Cowboys vs. Packers 29% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +2%	34%	+186	+2%	29% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
27	Braelon AllenNo TD RB · Jets vs. Patriots A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	34% −5%	36%	+190	−5%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
28	Jaylen WarrenNo TD RB · Steelers vs. Buccaneers 39% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −4%	35%	+200	−4%	39% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
29	Rachaad WhiteTD RB · Commanders vs. 49ers A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	33% −1%	33%	+201	−1%	A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
30	Jayden DanielsNo TD QB · Commanders vs. 49ers	33% +1%	33%	+201	+1%		+ Slip
31	Michael WilsonNo TD WR · Cardinals vs. Rams 30% of the team's end-zone targets	33% −10%	37%	+202	−10%	30% of the team's end-zone targets · Rams have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
32	Zay FlowersNo TD WR · Ravens vs. Browns 30% of the team's targets	33% −10%	37%	+204	−10%	30% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Ravens at about 21 points, 4 fewer than usual	+ Slip
33	Bhayshul TutenTD ×2 RB · Jaguars vs. Texans 36% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −9%	36%	+205	−9%	36% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
34	Tetairoa McMillanNo TD WR · Panthers vs. Eagles 29% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +9%	30%	+209	+9%	29% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
35	Parker WashingtonNo TD WR · Jaguars vs. Texans 24% of the team's end-zone targets	32% −2%	32%	+217	−2%	24% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
36	Matthew GoldenTD WR · Packers vs. Cowboys 22% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +7%	29%	+217	+7%	22% of the team's end-zone targets · Cowboys have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Packers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual	+ Slip
37	Dameon PierceTD RB · Eagles vs. Panthers Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual	31% −1%	32%	+221	−1%	Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
38	Tony PollardNo TD RB · Titans vs. Colts 70% of the team's carries inside the 10	31% +5%	29%	+224	+5%	70% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
39	Tucker KraftNo TD TE · Packers vs. Cowboys Vegas has the Packers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual	31% ▲ +15%	27%	+228	▲ +15%	Vegas has the Packers at about 28 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cowboys' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
40	Isaiah LikelyTD TE · Giants vs. Saints 22% of the team's end-zone targets	30% ▲ +21%	25%	+229	▲ +21%	22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Giants at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Saints' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.