Touchdown Scorers: Week 3

These games were played before the touchdown model launched. Its predictions were made afterward using only information from before each week, with the players who actually played.

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Lions vs. Jets

TD ×3

64%anytime TD · usually 61% · fair −181+ Slip

• 62% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Jets have allowed 1.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Christian McCaffrey

RB · 49ers vs. Cardinals

TD

63%anytime TD · usually 54% · fair −172+ Slip

• 81% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Javonte Williams

RB · Cowboys vs. Ravens

TD

54%anytime TD · usually 49% · fair −117+ Slip

• 74% of the team's carries inside the 10

Chris Olave

WR · vs. Raiders

No TD

35%usually 29% · fair +188▲ +21%+ Slip

• 35% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Garrett Wilson

WR · vs. Lions

TD

32%usually 26% · fair +216▲ +21%+ Slip

• 26% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Jets at about 21 points, 3 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Travis Etienne

RB · vs. Raiders

No TD

35%usually 30% · fair +184▲ +17%+ Slip

• Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Christian McCaffrey

RB · vs. Cardinals

TD

63%usually 54% · fair −172▲ +17%+ Slip

• 81% of the team's carries inside the 10
• Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 4 more than usual
• Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · vs. Browns

No TD

30%usually 25% · fair +236▲ +17%+ Slip

• 26% of the team's end-zone targets
• Vegas has the Panthers at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR · vs. Cardinals

No TD

27%usually 23% · fair +273▲ +17%+ Slip

• 22% of the team's targets
• Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 4 more than usual
• A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

#	Player	Anytime TD	Usual	Fair odds	vs. usual	Why	Slip
1	Jahmyr Gibbs★ Best BetTD ×3 RB · Lions vs. Jets 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	64% +5%	61%	−181	+5%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
2	Christian McCaffrey★ Best BetTD RB · 49ers vs. Cardinals 81% of the team's carries inside the 10	63% ▲ +17%	54%	−172	▲ +17%	81% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
3	Derrick HenryTD ×2 RB · Ravens vs. Cowboys 82% of the team's carries inside the 10	60% +4%	58%	−152	+4%	82% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.1 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Ravens at about 28 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
4	Javonte Williams★ Best BetTD RB · Cowboys vs. Ravens 74% of the team's carries inside the 10	54% +9%	49%	−117	+9%	74% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
5	Amon-Ra St. BrownTD WR · Lions vs. Jets 27% of the team's end-zone targets	52% +1%	52%	−110	+1%	27% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
6	James CookTD RB · Bills vs. Chargers 42% of the team's carries inside the 10	52% +3%	51%	−110	+3%	42% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Chargers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bills at about 29 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
7	Josh AllenTD ×2 QB · Bills vs. Chargers 37% of the team's carries inside the 10	51% +1%	51%	−105	+1%	37% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bills at about 29 points, 3 more than usual	+ Slip
8	Kenneth Walker IIITD ×2 RB · Chiefs vs. Dolphins 54% of the team's carries inside the 10	51% +5%	49%	−104	+5%	54% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Dolphins have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
9	Cam SkatteboNo TD RB · Giants vs. Titans 53% of the team's carries inside the 10	50% +2%	49%	−102	+2%	53% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
10	Jonathan TaylorNo TD RB · Colts vs. Texans 82% of the team's carries inside the 10	49% −7%	53%	+105	−7%	82% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Texans have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Colts at about 20 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
11	Kyren WilliamsNo TD RB · Rams vs. Broncos 68% of the team's carries inside the 10	48% −15%	56%	+110	−15%	68% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Rams at about 21 points, 5 fewer than usual	+ Slip
12	Chase BrownNo TD RB · Bengals vs. Steelers 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	47% −5%	50%	+111	−5%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
13	Ashton JeantyNo TD RB · Raiders vs. Saints 81% of the team's carries inside the 10	45% +6%	43%	+121	+6%	81% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
14	Bijan RobinsonTD ×2 RB · Falcons vs. Packers 56% of the team's carries inside the 10	42% −6%	45%	+136	−6%	56% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Falcons at about 20 points, 2 fewer than usual	+ Slip
15	Davante AdamsNo TD WR · Rams vs. Broncos 39% of the team's end-zone targets	42% −18%	51%	+139	−18%	39% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Rams at about 21 points, 5 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
16	D'Andre SwiftNo TD RB · Bears vs. Eagles 52% of the team's carries inside the 10	42% −7%	45%	+139	−7%	52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bears at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
17	Omarion HamptonNo TD RB · Chargers vs. Bills 49% of the team's carries inside the 10	41% −2%	42%	+145	−2%	49% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills have allowed 1.1 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)	+ Slip
18	Ja'Marr ChaseTD WR · Bengals vs. Steelers 35% of the team's end-zone targets	40% −4%	41%	+150	−4%	35% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
19	Christian WatsonTD WR · Packers vs. Falcons 32% of the team's end-zone targets	40% +4%	38%	+153	+4%	32% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
20	RJ HarveyNo TD RB · Broncos vs. Rams 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% −8%	42%	+161	−8%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
21	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaTD ×2 WR · Seahawks vs. Commanders 52% of the team's end-zone targets	38% +2%	38%	+162	+2%	52% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
22	Quinshon JudkinsNo TD RB · Browns vs. Panthers 58% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% +7%	36%	+162	+7%	58% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual	+ Slip
23	Aaron JonesNo TD RB · Vikings vs. Buccaneers 48% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% −2%	39%	+163	−2%	48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
24	De'Von AchaneNo TD RB · Dolphins vs. Chiefs 49% of the team's carries inside the 10	38% −5%	40%	+164	−5%	49% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 3 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
25	Sam LaPortaNo TD TE · Lions vs. Jets 28% of the team's end-zone targets	37% +1%	37%	+169	+1%	28% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
26	Chuba HubbardNo TD RB · Panthers vs. Browns 62% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% +9%	33%	+175	+9%	62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Panthers at about 22 points, 2 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
27	Breece HallNo TD RB · Jets vs. Lions 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	36% ▲ +14%	32%	+176	▲ +14%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Jets at about 21 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Lions' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
28	Travis EtienneNo TD RB · Saints vs. Raiders Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 4 more than usual	35% ▲ +17%	30%	+184	▲ +17%	Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
29	Jameson WilliamsNo TD WR · Lions vs. Jets	35% +2%	35%	+184	+2%		+ Slip
30	David MontgomeryNo TD RB · Texans vs. Colts 63% of the team's carries inside the 10	35% +6%	33%	+184	+6%	63% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
31	Rashee RiceNo TD WR · Chiefs vs. Dolphins 22% of the team's end-zone targets	35% +6%	33%	+186	+6%	22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip
32	Mike EvansQTD WR · 49ers vs. Cardinals Questionable (limited in practice): players like him play about 100% of the time; 35% if he plays	35% +14%	31%	+186	+14%	Questionable (limited in practice): players like him play about 100% of the time; 35% if he plays · 33% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the 49ers at about 28 points, 4 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
33	Chris OlaveNo TD WR · Saints vs. Raiders 35% of the team's end-zone targets	35% ▲ +21%	29%	+188	▲ +21%	35% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Saints at about 24 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately	+ Slip
34	TreVeyon HendersonNo TD RB · Patriots vs. Jaguars 37% of the team's carries inside the 10	34% −7%	36%	+198	−7%	37% of the team's carries inside the 10	+ Slip
35	Bucky IrvingNo TD RB · Buccaneers vs. Vikings 41% of the team's carries inside the 10	33% −19%	40%	+204	−19%	41% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual	+ Slip
36	Parker WashingtonTD WR · Jaguars vs. Patriots 23% of the team's end-zone targets	33% +6%	31%	+204	+6%	23% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
37	Trey McBrideNo TD TE · Cardinals vs. 49ers 46% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +3%	31%	+209	+3%	46% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
38	CeeDee LambNo TD WR · Cowboys vs. Ravens 39% of the team's end-zone targets	32% +7%	30%	+211	+7%	39% of the team's end-zone targets	+ Slip
39	Jaylen WarrenQNo TD RB · Steelers vs. Bengals Questionable (limited in practice): players like him play about 100% of the time; 32% if he plays	32% −2%	33%	+212	−2%	Questionable (limited in practice): players like him play about 100% of the time; 32% if he plays · 48% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around	+ Slip
40	Travis KelceTD TE · Chiefs vs. Dolphins 22% of the team's targets	32% +10%	29%	+212	+10%	22% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 28 points, 4 more than usual	+ Slip

“Usual” is his chance with the same role against an average defense and his team’s usual Vegas implied total. Team scoring comes from the Vegas spread and total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players flagged ▲ beat their usual rate: anytime +14–22%, 2+ TDs +45%. Flags are capped at 2 per team per game. First TD has no flags (they didn’t hold up). Even the likeliest first-TD scorer in a game only scores first about 1 time in 7. Passing touchdowns don’t count for quarterbacks. Questionable players (Q) are shown with how often players like him play. Fair odds are the odds that match BEAVER’s chance; touchdown props, and first-TD and 2+ props most of all, carry a large sportsbook margin, so a good matchup is not the same as a good bet.