BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Buccaneers at Bears
BuccaneersTampa Bay2-5away
BEAVER projects22
Soldier Field
BearsChicago5-2home
BEAVER projects26
BEAVERBEAVER gives CHI 64% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Buccaneers–––
Bears–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (TB–CHI)22–26–
SpreadCHI −4.8No line
Total48.0–
CHI win chance64%–
TB by 8+
17%
TB by 1–7
19%
CHI by 1–7
24%
CHI by 8+
40%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PassingYds
Baker Mayfield QB168116–229
RushingYds
Bucky Irving RB5433–88
Baker Mayfield QB154–29
Kenny Gainwell RB134–32
ReceivingRecYds
Emeka Egbuka WR3.72–53823–57
Chris Godwin Jr. WR3.32–43116–45
Cade Otton TE2.31–3218–38
Ted Hurst III WR–142–30
Tez Johnson WR–112–25
Chicago Bears
PassingYds
Caleb Williams QB172135–255
RushingYds
D'Andre Swift RB3927–61
Caleb Williams QB186–30
Roschon Johnson RB61–18
ReceivingRecYds
Luther Burden III WR3.92–54224–66
Colston Loveland TE4.02–53823–64
Rome Odunze WR2.72–43418–53
Kalif Raymond WR1.91–3155–30
D'Andre Swift RB2.11–3124–20

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.046 #25Offense EPA / play+0.069 #6
−0.037 #8Defense EPA / play allowed−0.016 #12
−1.5% #22Offense success rate+3.0% #6
−1.0% #7Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #14
−0.101 #29Passing EPA / dropback+0.102 #6
−0.019 #11Pass defense EPA allowed−0.067 #6
+0.054 #8Rushing EPA / carry+0.025 #12
−0.066 #2Rush defense EPA allowed+0.056 #28
−0.036 #21Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.052 #10
−0.008 #16Early-down EPA allowed+0.053 #29
Scoring and special teams
+0.5 #12Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #8
−0.4 #15Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.5 #13
−0.29 #22Special teams EPA / game+0.92 #2

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky IrvingRB
26%−27%
57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
Emeka EgbukaWR
14%−24%
36% of the team's end-zone targets · Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
Sean TuckerRB
12%−21%
Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
11%−17%
Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
10%−23%
Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
8.7%−24%
34% of the team's end-zone targets · Buccaneers projected for 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
Chicago Bears
30%−24%
52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
13%−21%
24% of the team's end-zone targets · Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual
12%−26%
Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual
Rome OdunzeWR
12%−25%
34% of the team's end-zone targets · Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual
8.2%−19%
Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual
8.0%−28%
Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Bears projected for 26 points, 4 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
EPA per dropback +0.00
PROJECTED STARTER · Bears
Caleb Williams
EPA per dropback +0.03

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Buccaneers: last 5 games

W43-13
atPanthers
Covered
L19-26
vsSteelers
Missed
W24-16
atCowboys
Covered
L14-17
vsPackers
Push
L16-23
vsVikings
Missed

Bears: last 5 games

W30-24
vsPatriots
Covered
W31-23
atFalcons
Covered
L7-31
atPackers
Missed
W23-12
vsJets
Covered
W27-7
vsEagles
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.09−0.05+0.00+0.05+0.10Entering week123456789Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1: −0.00Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2: −0.05Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 3: −0.08Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 4: −0.07Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 5: −0.07Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 6: −0.02Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 7: −0.03Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 8: −0.01Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 9: −0.01Chicago Bears · 1: +0.02Chicago Bears · 2: +0.04Chicago Bears · 3: +0.03Chicago Bears · 4: +0.05Chicago Bears · 5: +0.05Chicago Bears · 6: +0.03Chicago Bears · 7: +0.07Chicago Bears · 8: +0.08Chicago Bears · 9: +0.08
● Tampa Bay Buccaneers● Chicago Bears