Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

NFL scores › Week 8 › Titans at Bengals

TitansTennessee1-6away

BEAVER projects17

Sunday, Nov 11:00 PM ETPaycor Stadium

BengalsCincinnati4-2home

BEAVER projects29

BEAVERCIN −10leanUnder 46.5leanBEAVER gives CIN 83% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.

SpreadTotalMoney

Titans

Bengals

BEAVER’s card

Lean

CIN −102.8 points off the line

Under 46.5 lean, 0.7 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff

	BEAVER	Market	Call
Score (TEN–CIN)	17–29	–
Spread	CIN −12.8	CIN −10	CIN −10
Total	45.8	46.5	Under 46.5
CIN win chance	83%	−600

TEN by 8+

TEN by 1–7

11%

CIN by 1–7

19%

CIN by 8+

64%

Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Bengals (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Tennessee Titans
Passing		Yds
Cam Ward QB		216154–273
Rushing		Yds
Tony Pollard RB		6541–87
Michael Carter RB		145–33
Cam Ward QB		81–18
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Carnell Tate WR	4.33–6	5233–77
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	3.93–6	3622–58
Elic Ayomanor WR	2.01–3	2610–50
Gunnar Helm TE	1.81–3	165–33
Calvin Ridley WR	1.31–3	163–35

Cincinnati Bengals
Passing		Yds
Joe Burrow QB		277209–314
Rushing		Yds
Chase Brown RB		5534–81▲
Samaje Perine RB		175–36
Joe Burrow QB		81–17
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Ja'Marr Chase WR	5.74–8	7042–98
Tee Higgins WR	4.93–6	6536–95
Chase Brown RB	3.62–5	2513–34
Mike Gesicki TE	1.51–3	152–28
Dohnte Meyers WR	1.51–3	142–32

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.112 #31Offense EPA / play+0.053 #9

+0.094 #31Defense EPA / play allowed+0.007 #18

−3.2% #28Offense success rate+3.2% #4

+3.4% #30Defense success rate allowed+0.6% #22

−0.149 #31Passing EPA / dropback+0.050 #11

+0.120 #31Pass defense EPA allowed−0.005 #18

−0.057 #25Rushing EPA / carry+0.023 #14

+0.065 #30Rush defense EPA allowed+0.001 #19

−0.087 #31Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.013 #12

+0.079 #31Early-down EPA allowed+0.013 #20

Scoring and special teams

−5.0 #32Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.6 #5

+1.4 #22Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #17

−0.60 #27Special teams EPA / game+0.04 #16

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Tennessee Titans

Tony PollardRB

37%Usual

73% of the team's carries inside the 10

Carnell TateWR

28%+4%

30% of the team's end-zone targets

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR

25%+5%

23% of the team's end-zone targets

Elic AyomanorWR

20%+7%

30% of the team's end-zone targets

Cam WardQB

17%+8%

Michael CarterRB

16%+4%

Cincinnati Bengals

Chase BrownRB

48%+6%

58% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

44%+2%

34% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual

Tee HigginsWR

42%+3%

22% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual

Mike GesickiTE

23%+12%

21% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual

Samaje PerineRB

20%+12%

Vegas has the Bengals at about 28 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Titans' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately