BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Falcons at Buccaneers
FalconsAtlanta3-4away
BEAVER projects20
Raymond James Stadium
BuccaneersTampa Bay2-5home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERTB −2.5, leanleanUnder 46.5, leanleanBEAVER gives TB 63% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Falcons
Buccaneers

BEAVER’s card

Lean
TB −2.5, lean1.8 points off the line
  • Under 46.5 lean, 1.3 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ATL–TB)20–25–
SpreadTB −4.3TB −2.5TB −2.5
Total45.246.5Under 46.5
TB win chance63%−135
ATL by 8+
18%
ATL by 1–7
20%
TB by 1–7
24%
TB by 8+
39%

Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Buccaneers (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Atlanta Falcons
PassingYds
Michael Penix Jr. QB243189–298
RushingYds
Bijan Robinson RB7048–101
Brian Robinson RB93–23
Khalil Herbert RB62–20
ReceivingRecYds
Drake London WR5.13–76740–103
Kyle Pitts TE3.32–53318–53
Bijan Robinson RB3.32–52513–46
Jahan Dotson WR1.31–3205–40
Olamide Zaccheaus WR–71–20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PassingYds
Baker Mayfield QB214177–272
RushingYds
Bucky Irving RB6543–89
Kenny Gainwell RB164–33
Baker Mayfield QB156–27
ReceivingRecYds
Emeka Egbuka WR4.03–64527–71
Chris Godwin Jr. WR3.62–53619–55
Cade Otton TE2.91–42812–49
Ted Hurst III WR1.20–2163–38
Tez Johnson WR1.30–3142–36

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.038 #21Offense EPA / play−0.046 #25
−0.039 #7Defense EPA / play allowed−0.037 #8
+0.4% #13Offense success rate−1.5% #22
−0.8% #8Defense success rate allowed−1.0% #7
−0.086 #26Passing EPA / dropback−0.101 #29
−0.064 #7Pass defense EPA allowed−0.019 #11
+0.018 #15Rushing EPA / carry+0.054 #8
−0.037 #5Rush defense EPA allowed−0.066 #2
−0.000 #17Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.036 #21
−0.034 #8Early-down EPA allowed−0.008 #16
Scoring and special teams
+0.2 #15Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #12
+0.9 #20Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.4 #15
−0.78 #31Special teams EPA / game−0.29 #22

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Atlanta Falcons
49%+2%
69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Drake LondonWR
30%Usual
26% of the team's end-zone targets
Kyle PittsTE
21%+1%
26% of the team's end-zone targets
15%−2%
Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Jahan DotsonWR
13%+1%
26% of the team's end-zone targets
11%−5%
Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky IrvingRB
49%+10%
57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual
Emeka EgbukaWR
36%+7%
36% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual
22%▲ +13%
Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Cade OttonTE
20%+4%
Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual
17%+10%
Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Sean TuckerRB
17%+10%
Vegas has the Buccaneers at about 24 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Falcons' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
EPA per dropback +0.01
PROJECTED STARTER · Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
EPA per dropback +0.00

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Falcons: last 5 games

W29-20
vs49ers
Covered
L23-31
vsBears
Missed
L23-30
vsRavens
Missed
W45-24
atSaints
Covered
W35-14
atPackers
Covered

Buccaneers: last 5 games

W43-13
atPanthers
Covered
L19-26
vsSteelers
Missed
W24-16
atCowboys
Covered
L14-17
vsPackers
Push
L16-23
vsVikings
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.09−0.06−0.03−0.01+0.02Entering week12345678Atlanta Falcons · 1: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 2: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 3: −0.05Atlanta Falcons · 4: −0.02Atlanta Falcons · 5: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 6: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 7: −0.02Atlanta Falcons · 8: +0.00Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1: −0.00Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2: −0.05Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 3: −0.08Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 4: −0.07Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 5: −0.07Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 6: −0.02Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 7: −0.03Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 8: −0.01
● Atlanta Falcons● Tampa Bay Buccaneers