Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

NFL scores › Week 7 › Buccaneers at Panthers

BuccaneersTampa Bay2-5away

FinalBank of America Stadium

PanthersCarolina3-3home

BEAVER TB +3, wonBEAVER Over 44.5, wonBEAVER had CAR 58% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (TB–CAR)	21–24	–	43–13
Spread	CAR −2.7	CAR −3	TB by 30	TB +3 ✓
Total	45.2	44.5	56	Over 44.5 ✓
CAR win chance	58%	−166	Lost

TB by 8+

21%

TB by 1–7

21%

CAR by 1–7

24%

CAR by 8+

34%

Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Buccaneers (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.052 #25Offense EPA / play+0.045 #13

−0.023 #11Defense EPA / play allowed+0.033 #26

−1.8% #24Offense success rate+0.1% #14

−0.9% #9Defense success rate allowed+0.5% #20

−0.101 #29Passing EPA / dropback+0.048 #12

+0.002 #18Pass defense EPA allowed+0.029 #23

+0.042 #10Rushing EPA / carry+0.023 #14

−0.068 #4Rush defense EPA allowed+0.036 #26

−0.046 #24Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.075 #4

−0.010 #14Early-down EPA allowed+0.019 #22

Scoring and special teams

−1.0 #23Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #13

+0.4 #17Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.8 #19

−0.66 #27Special teams EPA / game−0.41 #23

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky IrvingRBTD ×2

41%−4%

51% of the team's carries inside the 10

Chris Godwin Jr.WRNo TD

23%−6%

A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Cade OttonTENo TD

19%+1%

Jalon DanielsQBNo TD

18%−2%

Ted Hurst IIIWRNo TD

17%−5%

35% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Sean TuckerRBTD

14%+4%

41% of the team's carries inside the 10

Carolina Panthers

Chuba HubbardRBNo TD

49%+9%

72% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Buccaneers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Tetairoa McMillanWRNo TD

31%▲ +15%

30% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Jalen CokerWRNo TD

28%▲ +14%

23% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Darren WallerTETD

18%+10%

22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Tommy TrembleTENo TD

16%+8%

Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Bryce YoungQBNo TD

14%+8%

Vegas has the Panthers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing		Yds
Baker Mayfield QB		20264
Rushing		Yds
Bucky Irving RB		64106▲
Baker Mayfield QB		181
Kenny Gainwell RB		788
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	4.04	4027
Cade Otton TE	3.20	320
Ted Hurst III WR	1.70	240
Tez Johnson WR	1.42	1633
Bucky Irving RB	2.51	164

Carolina Panthers
Passing		Yds
Bryce Young QB		252163
Rushing		Yds
Chuba Hubbard RB		5733
Bryce Young QB		59
AJ Dillon RB		5DNP
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Tetairoa McMillan WR	5.04	6540
Jalen Coker WR	4.61	559
Darren Waller TE	2.41	2150
Tommy Tremble TE	2.11	188
Chuba Hubbard RB	2.14	1427