Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

NFL scores › Week 7 › Browns at Titans

BrownsCleveland5-2away

FinalNissan Stadium

TitansTennessee1-6home

BEAVER CLE −2.5, wonBEAVER Over 36.5, wonBEAVER had CLE 58% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (CLE–TEN)	21–18	–	27–24
Spread	CLE −2.6	CLE −2.5	CLE by 3	CLE −2.5 ✓
Total	38.8	36.5	51	Over 36.5 ✓
TEN win chance	42%	+110	Lost

CLE by 8+

34%

CLE by 1–7

24%

TEN by 1–7

21%

TEN by 8+

21%

Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Browns (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.090 #30Offense EPA / play−0.114 #31

−0.049 #4Defense EPA / play allowed+0.088 #31

−4.9% #32Offense success rate−3.3% #28

−2.3% #5Defense success rate allowed+2.3% #28

−0.109 #30Passing EPA / dropback−0.155 #31

−0.086 #5Pass defense EPA allowed+0.123 #31

−0.070 #28Rushing EPA / carry−0.056 #24

−0.002 #14Rush defense EPA allowed+0.045 #28

−0.081 #30Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.091 #31

−0.050 #3Early-down EPA allowed+0.063 #31

Scoring and special teams

−4.2 #31Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.4 #32

−1.4 #10Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.9 #20

−0.34 #22Special teams EPA / game−0.83 #30

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Cleveland Browns

Quinshon JudkinsRBTD ×2

34%+5%

60% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

Harold Fannin Jr.TENo TD

28%+13%

26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

Denzel BostonWRNo TD

25%+8%

61% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

Deshaun WatsonQBTD

22%+1%

Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

KC ConcepcionWRNo TD

19%+6%

Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

Audric EstiméRBDidn’t play

17%+8%

44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Browns at about 20 points, 2 more than usual

Tennessee Titans

Tony PollardRBTD ×3

30%−5%

70% of the team's carries inside the 10

Wan'Dale RobinsonWRNo TD

25%−1%

23% of the team's end-zone targets

Carnell TateWRNo TD

25%+2%

30% of the team's end-zone targets

Cam WardQBNo TD

17%−6%

Elic AyomanorWRNo TD

14%−1%

30% of the team's end-zone targets

Gunnar HelmTENo TD

12%+2%

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Cleveland Browns
Passing		Yds
Deshaun Watson QB		180308
Rushing		Yds
Quinshon Judkins RB		4896▲
Deshaun Watson QB		2519
Audric Estimé RB		24DNP
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Denzel Boston WR	3.03	4327
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	3.36	3091
KC Concepcion WR	3.28	29129
Jerry Jeudy WR	2.24	2321
Quinshon Judkins RB	2.41	148

Tennessee Titans
Passing		Yds
Cam Ward QB		176181
Rushing		Yds
Tony Pollard RB		56129
Tyjae Spears RB		7DNP
Cam Ward QB		75
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Carnell Tate WR	4.15	4869
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4.04	387
Elic Ayomanor WR	1.23	1544
Calvin Ridley WR	1.1DNP	14DNP
Gunnar Helm TE	1.23	1124

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Browns

Deshaun Watson

EPA per dropback −0.08

STARTED · Titans

Cam Ward

EPA per dropback −0.16

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

Cleveland Browns
Dillon Gabriel	QB · Back	Out
Teven Jenkins	G · Back	Out
Kalia Davis	DT · Quadricep	Out
Mike Hall Jr.	DT · Ankle	Out
Quincy Williams	LB · Neck	Questionable
Denzel Ward	CB · Hand	Questionable

Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears	RB · Not injury related - resting player	Questionable
Calvin Ridley	WR · Hip	Questionable
Dorian Mausi	LB · Foot	Questionable
Tony Adams	S · Ankle	Questionable
Kevin Winston Jr.	S · Quadricep	Questionable