Player Props: Week 4

These games were played before the player-props model launched. Its projections were made afterward using only information from before each week, with the players who actually played.

The projection is the typical game: half the time he gets more, half the time less. Averages run higher because big games pull them up. The likely range covers the middle half of outcomes (the dark bar) and 80% of outcomes (the light bar). “Usual” is his projection against an average defense with his team’s usual Vegas total. In the 2019–2025 backtest, players projected 5%+ above usual beat their usual 55–60% of the time (vs. 43–50% overall); 10%+ below usual (“Tough”) beat it 29–45% of the time. These are projections, not sportsbook lines; compare them with the line you’re offered.