BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Jets at Chiefs
JetsNew York2-5away
BEAVER projects18
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
ChiefsKansas City5-1home
BEAVER projects28
BEAVEROver 43.5, leanleanKC −9.5, leanleanBEAVER gives KC 77% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Jets
Chiefs

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 43.5, lean2.1 points off the line
  • KC −9.5 lean, 0.4 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (NYJ–KC)18–28–
SpreadKC −9.9KC −9.5KC −9.5
Total45.643.5Over 43.5
KC win chance77%−500
NYJ by 8+
9%
NYJ by 1–7
14%
KC by 1–7
22%
KC by 8+
56%

Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Chiefs (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (49% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual. See all player props
New York Jets
PassingYds
Geno Smith QB217155–254
RushingYds
Braelon Allen RB3520–61
Isaiah Davis RB71–21
Geno Smith QB60–12
ReceivingRecYds
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3.22–44326–64
Garrett Wilson WR4.02–64327–68
Adonai Mitchell WR2.31–32412–46
Mason Taylor TE2.81–42210–43
Kenyon Sadiq TE1.61–2143–27
Kansas City Chiefs
PassingYds
Patrick Mahomes QB233202–274
RushingYds
Kenneth Walker III RB7248–112▲
Patrick Mahomes QB133–26
Emmett Johnson RB72–20
ReceivingRecYds
Rashee Rice WR4.22–54625–69
Travis Kelce TE3.62–53919–57
Xavier Worthy WR3.22–43315–50
Kenneth Walker III RB2.41–3145–29
Noah Gray TE1.40–2133–27

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.061 #28Offense EPA / play+0.078 #3
+0.039 #28Defense EPA / play allowed+0.005 #17
−0.4% #17Offense success rate+2.7% #9
+1.3% #25Defense success rate allowed−0.7% #10
−0.074 #24Passing EPA / dropback+0.047 #12
+0.101 #29Pass defense EPA allowed+0.033 #24
−0.047 #24Rushing EPA / carry+0.124 #1
−0.027 #10Rush defense EPA allowed−0.022 #11
−0.040 #23Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.056 #9
+0.028 #25Early-down EPA allowed−0.022 #11
Scoring and special teams
−3.0 #28Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.1 #17
+1.1 #21Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.2 #3
+0.31 #11Special teams EPA / game+0.10 #14

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual. See the full TD board
New York Jets
17%−11%
35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Jets at about 17 points, 2 fewer than usual
17%−10%
26% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
16%−7%
Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Jets at about 17 points, 2 fewer than usual
12%−8%
31% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Mason TaylorTE
11%−7%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 17 points, 2 fewer than usual
Kenyon SadiqTE
10%−8%
Vegas has the Jets at about 17 points, 2 fewer than usual
Kansas City Chiefs
47%▲ +13%
79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Travis KelceTE
20%▲ +15%
20% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Rashee RiceWR
19%+8%
22% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
15%+9%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
12%+13%
Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
9.3%+7%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 26 points, 3 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
Projected starter for Jets
Geno Smith
EPA per dropback −0.02
Projected starter for Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
EPA per dropback +0.10

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Jets: last 5 games

L25-28
vsDolphins
Missed
L19-26
atPatriots
Covered
W17-12
vsBrowns
Covered
L12-23
atBears
Missed
L24-31
atLions
Push

Chiefs: last 5 games

L3-20
atSeahawks
Missed
W22-6
vsChargers
Covered
W30-27
atRaiders
Missed
W24-10
atDolphins
Covered
W33-30
vsColts
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.15−0.09−0.02+0.05+0.11Entering week123456789New York Jets · 1: −0.14New York Jets · 2: −0.09New York Jets · 3: −0.07New York Jets · 4: −0.09New York Jets · 5: −0.10New York Jets · 6: −0.09New York Jets · 7: −0.09New York Jets · 8: −0.10New York Jets · 9: −0.10Kansas City Chiefs · 1: +0.02Kansas City Chiefs · 2: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 3: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 4: +0.07Kansas City Chiefs · 5: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 6: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 7: +0.10Kansas City Chiefs · 8: +0.07Kansas City Chiefs · 9: +0.07
● New York Jets● Kansas City Chiefs