BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Raiders at 49ers
RaidersLas Vegas3-4away
BEAVER projects20
Levi's Stadium
49ersSan Francisco6-1home
BEAVER projects31
BEAVERBEAVER gives SF 80% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Raiders–––
49ers–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (LV–SF)20–31–
SpreadSF −11.2No line
Total50.6–
SF win chance80%–
LV by 8+
7%
LV by 1–7
13%
SF by 1–7
21%
SF by 8+
60%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Las Vegas Raiders
PassingYds
Kirk Cousins QB199143–255
RushingYds
Ashton Jeanty RB3924–64
Mike Washington Jr. RB177–36
ReceivingRecYds
Brock Bowers TE4.83–65433–75
Tre Tucker WR3.52–44123–64
Ashton Jeanty RB3.52–52616–41
Michael Mayer TE2.92–42613–39
Jalen Nailor WR–101–22
San Francisco 49ers
PassingYds
Brock Purdy QB177131–242
RushingYds
Christian McCaffrey RB5737–82▲
Kaelon Black RB2813–54▲
Brock Purdy QB178–29
ReceivingRecYds
George Kittle TE4.73–64931–71
Mike Evans WR3.83–54627–68
Christian McCaffrey RB4.13–53018–42
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2.61–4219–39
Christian Kirk WR1.41–2134–31

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.058 #26Offense EPA / play+0.108 #2
+0.036 #24Defense EPA / play allowed−0.016 #11
−2.4% #25Offense success rate+6.9% #1
+2.2% #27Defense success rate allowed+0.6% #20
−0.030 #19Passing EPA / dropback+0.138 #2
+0.057 #27Pass defense EPA allowed−0.007 #15
−0.100 #31Rushing EPA / carry+0.078 #5
+0.027 #23Rush defense EPA allowed−0.034 #8
−0.064 #27Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.086 #2
+0.049 #28Early-down EPA allowed−0.024 #10
Scoring and special teams
−0.4 #18Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.9 #3
+3.1 #30Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.6 #9
−0.52 #25Special teams EPA / game+0.73 #3

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Las Vegas Raiders
25%−22%
75% of the team's carries inside the 10
Brock BowersTE
16%−22%
31% of the team's end-zone targets
Tre TuckerWR
12%−25%
21% of the team's end-zone targets
11%−17%
Cody WhiteWR
10%−24%
8.8%−26%
San Francisco 49ers
46%−25%
64% of the team's carries inside the 10 · 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual
30%−26%
27% of the team's end-zone targets · Raiders have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Mike EvansWR
23%−28%
33% of the team's end-zone targets · 49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual
Kaelon BlackRB
20%−15%
49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual
15%−28%
49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual
Brock PurdyQB
14%−20%
49ers projected for 31 points, 5 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Raiders
Kirk Cousins
EPA per dropback +0.04
PROJECTED STARTER · 49ers
Brock Purdy
EPA per dropback +0.14

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Raiders: last 5 games

L21-35
vsRams
Missed
L30-33
vsBills
Covered
L17-45
atPatriots
Missed
L27-30
vsChiefs
Covered
W35-27
atSaints
Covered

49ers: last 5 games

L20-29
atFalcons
Missed
W23-17
vsCommanders
Missed
W32-29
atSeahawks
Covered
W24-14
vsBroncos
Covered
W36-30
vsCardinals
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.12−0.05+0.02+0.09+0.16Entering week123456789Las Vegas Raiders · 1: −0.10Las Vegas Raiders · 2: −0.07Las Vegas Raiders · 3: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 4: −0.03Las Vegas Raiders · 5: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 6: −0.06Las Vegas Raiders · 7: −0.06Las Vegas Raiders · 8: −0.09Las Vegas Raiders · 9: −0.09San Francisco 49ers · 1: +0.02San Francisco 49ers · 2: +0.06San Francisco 49ers · 3: +0.07San Francisco 49ers · 4: +0.09San Francisco 49ers · 5: +0.08San Francisco 49ers · 6: +0.12San Francisco 49ers · 7: +0.14San Francisco 49ers · 8: +0.12San Francisco 49ers · 9: +0.12
● Las Vegas Raiders● San Francisco 49ers