BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Rams at Commanders
RamsLos Angeles3-4away
BEAVER projects27
Northwest Stadium
CommandersWashington1-4-1home
BEAVER projects23
BEAVERBEAVER gives LA 62% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Rams–––
Commanders–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (LA–WAS)27–23–
SpreadLA −3.9No line
Total49.2–
WAS win chance38%–
LA by 8+
38%
LA by 1–7
24%
WAS by 1–7
20%
WAS by 8+
18%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Los Angeles Rams
PassingYds
Matthew Stafford QB188139–268
RushingYds
Kyren Williams RB5536–87
Blake Corum RB3819–57▲
ReceivingRecYds
Puka Nacua WR6.14–86637–95
Tyler Higbee TE2.51–3219–35
Colby Parkinson TE2.41–32010–37
Kyren Williams RB2.82–4179–30
Konata Mumpfield WR–131–32
Washington Commanders
PassingYds
Jayden Daniels QB146110–210
RushingYds
Jayden Daniels QB3518–56
Rachaad White RB188–34
Austin Ekeler RB136–27
ReceivingRecYds
Terry McLaurin WR3.12–43519–53
Stefon Diggs WR3.82–53419–48
Chig Okonkwo TE2.92–42613–38
Antonio Williams WR2.31–32110–36
Treylon Burks WR–164–30

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.077 #4Offense EPA / play−0.018 #17
−0.042 #6Defense EPA / play allowed+0.036 #25
+4.1% #2Offense success rate−2.1% #24
−0.6% #11Defense success rate allowed+2.4% #28
+0.067 #10Passing EPA / dropback−0.007 #16
−0.035 #8Pass defense EPA allowed+0.042 #25
+0.074 #6Rushing EPA / carry−0.033 #19
−0.029 #9Rush defense EPA allowed−0.002 #17
+0.106 #1Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.010 #14
−0.006 #17Early-down EPA allowed+0.002 #18
Scoring and special teams
+2.0 #9Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #20
−1.0 #11Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.0 #29
−0.70 #29Special teams EPA / game+0.42 #8

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Los Angeles Rams
32%−34%
65% of the team's carries inside the 10
Puka NacuaWR
24%−36%
27% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Blake CorumRB
16%−25%
10%−28%
Commanders have allowed 1.0 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Tyler HigbeeTE
10%−31%
Commanders have allowed 1.0 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
8.0%−30%
A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Washington Commanders
13%−19%
Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
13%−17%
Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Stefon DiggsWR
12%−27%
21% of the team's targets
11%−28%
11%−21%
23% of the team's end-zone targets
8.2%−25%
25% of the team's end-zone targets

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Rams
Matthew Stafford
EPA per dropback +0.10
PROJECTED STARTER · Commanders
Jayden Daniels
EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Rams: last 5 games

W35-21
atRaiders
Covered
L16-18
vsCardinals
Missed
L34-37
vsBills
Missed
W24-20
atEagles
Covered
L26-30
atBroncos
Missed

Commanders: last 5 games

L17-23
at49ers
Covered
L27-27
vsGiants
Missed
L13-30
vsColts
Missed
W33-31
vsSeahawks
Covered
L20-37
atCowboys
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.07−0.02+0.04+0.09+0.14Entering week123456789Los Angeles Rams · 1: +0.09Los Angeles Rams · 2: +0.06Los Angeles Rams · 3: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 4: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 5: +0.13Los Angeles Rams · 6: +0.12Los Angeles Rams · 7: +0.09Los Angeles Rams · 8: +0.12Los Angeles Rams · 9: +0.12Washington Commanders · 1: −0.04Washington Commanders · 2: −0.02Washington Commanders · 3: −0.05Washington Commanders · 4: −0.03Washington Commanders · 5: −0.03Washington Commanders · 6: −0.03Washington Commanders · 7: −0.06Washington Commanders · 8: −0.05Washington Commanders · 9: −0.05
● Los Angeles Rams● Washington Commanders