BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Jaguars at Ravens
JaguarsJacksonville4-2away
BEAVER projects25
M&T Bank Stadium
RavensBaltimore4-3home
BEAVER projects23
BEAVERBEAVER gives JAX 56% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Jaguars–––
Ravens–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (JAX–BAL)25–23–
SpreadJAX −2.0No line
Total47.6–
BAL win chance44%–
JAX by 8+
33%
JAX by 1–7
24%
BAL by 1–7
22%
BAL by 8+
22%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Jacksonville Jaguars
PassingYds
Trevor Lawrence QB173134–255
RushingYds
Bhayshul Tuten RB3820–57
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB2011–40
Trevor Lawrence QB122–24
ReceivingRecYds
Parker Washington WR4.13–55333–75
Jakobi Meyers WR3.12–43519–57
Brenton Strange TE3.32–43218–45
Travis Hunter WR1.91–2177–33
Brian Thomas Jr. WR–174–30
Baltimore Ravens
PassingYds
Lamar Jackson QB17194–239
RushingYds
Derrick Henry RB6137–98
Lamar Jackson QB207–35
Justice Hill RB71–21
ReceivingRecYds
Zay Flowers WR5.23–75834–85
Mark Andrews TE2.71–4218–34
Ja'Kobi Lane WR2.21–3208–36
Rashod Bateman WR1.81–2197–36
Josh Cuevas TE–91–23

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.068 #7Offense EPA / play+0.065 #8
−0.029 #9Defense EPA / play allowed+0.010 #20
+2.9% #7Offense success rate+1.8% #11
−0.8% #9Defense success rate allowed+0.0% #18
+0.087 #7Passing EPA / dropback+0.117 #4
−0.027 #10Pass defense EPA allowed+0.017 #20
+0.039 #10Rushing EPA / carry+0.016 #17
−0.057 #4Rush defense EPA allowed−0.006 #14
+0.066 #5Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.062 #6
−0.010 #15Early-down EPA allowed−0.019 #12
Scoring and special teams
+2.6 #6Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.7 #11
−2.7 #4Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #18
+0.69 #4Special teams EPA / game+0.33 #10

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Jacksonville Jaguars
22%−31%
15%−23%
53% of the team's carries inside the 10
15%−27%
24% of the team's end-zone targets
12%−21%
33% of the team's end-zone targets
10%−28%
20% of the team's end-zone targets
9.3%−25%
Baltimore Ravens
33%−28%
83% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Zay FlowersWR
15%−34%
31% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Mark AndrewsTE
11%−27%
28% of the team's end-zone targets · Ravens projected for 23 points, 3 fewer than usual
Ja'Kobi LaneWR
9.0%−25%
67% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
8.8%−30%
Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Ravens projected for 23 points, 3 fewer than usual
Justice HillRB
8.1%−26%
Tough matchup: Jaguars have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Ravens projected for 23 points, 3 fewer than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
EPA per dropback +0.05
PROJECTED STARTER · Ravens
Lamar Jackson
EPA per dropback +0.11Not the usual starter

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Jaguars: last 5 games

L31-34
vsTexans
Missed
W19-17
vsEagles
Missed
W22-17
atBengals
Covered
W35-6
vsPatriots
Covered
L13-20
atBroncos
Missed

Ravens: last 5 games

L13-35
vsBengals
Missed
L10-13
atBrowns
Missed
W30-23
atFalcons
Covered
W24-18
vsTitans
Missed
W34-31
vsCowboys
Push

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.06+0.09+0.12Entering week123456789Jacksonville Jaguars · 1: +0.02Jacksonville Jaguars · 2: +0.07Jacksonville Jaguars · 3: +0.05Jacksonville Jaguars · 4: +0.07Jacksonville Jaguars · 5: +0.10Jacksonville Jaguars · 6: +0.11Jacksonville Jaguars · 7: +0.10Jacksonville Jaguars · 8: +0.10Jacksonville Jaguars · 9: +0.10Baltimore Ravens · 1: +0.03Baltimore Ravens · 2: +0.10Baltimore Ravens · 3: +0.07Baltimore Ravens · 4: +0.06Baltimore Ravens · 5: +0.08Baltimore Ravens · 6: +0.07Baltimore Ravens · 7: +0.06Baltimore Ravens · 8: +0.06Baltimore Ravens · 9: +0.06
● Jacksonville Jaguars● Baltimore Ravens