BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Packers at Patriots
PackersGreen Bay4-3away
BEAVER projects21
Gillette Stadium
PatriotsNew England4-3home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERBEAVER gives NE 61% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Packers–––
Patriots–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (GB–NE)21–25–
SpreadNE −3.7No line
Total45.5–
NE win chance61%–
GB by 8+
19%
GB by 1–7
20%
NE by 1–7
24%
NE by 8+
37%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Green Bay Packers
PassingYds
Jordan Love QB186156–265
RushingYds
Josh Jacobs RB3922–67
MarShawn Lloyd RB136–32
Kaleb Johnson RB82–25
ReceivingRecYds
Christian Watson WR3.72–54929–70
Matthew Golden WR4.02–54628–71
Tucker Kraft TE3.42–43319–53
Josh Jacobs RB2.01–2113–18
Savion Williams WR–80–19
New England Patriots
PassingYds
Drake Maye QB171144–227
RushingYds
Rhamondre Stevenson RB3218–47▲
Drake Maye QB229–35
TreVeyon Henderson RB2210–42
ReceivingRecYds
A.J. Brown WR4.02–54327–67
Hunter Henry TE2.92–42814–41
DeMario Douglas WR2.61–32410–39
Rhamondre Stevenson RB2.31–3167–27
Eli Raridon TE–166–30

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.043 #11Offense EPA / play+0.050 #10
−0.010 #15Defense EPA / play allowed−0.012 #14
−0.2% #16Offense success rate+2.1% #10
+1.0% #24Defense success rate allowed+0.1% #19
+0.112 #5Passing EPA / dropback+0.118 #3
−0.007 #16Pass defense EPA allowed−0.010 #14
−0.081 #28Rushing EPA / carry−0.046 #23
−0.017 #12Rush defense EPA allowed−0.005 #16
−0.005 #18Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.027 #11
−0.039 #4Early-down EPA allowed+0.009 #19
Scoring and special teams
−1.1 #23Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.5 #13
−1.9 #7Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.7 #5
+0.27 #12Special teams EPA / game−0.17 #19

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Green Bay Packers
Josh JacobsRB
27%−28%
70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
21%−32%
36% of the team's end-zone targets · Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
14%−30%
Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
14%−30%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
Tucker KraftTE
12%−32%
Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
7.6%−21%
Packers projected for 21 points, 4 fewer than usual
New England Patriots
20%−23%
44% of the team's carries inside the 10
A.J. BrownWR
16%−23%
26% of the team's targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
13%−19%
13%−22%
22% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Eli RaridonTE
11%−23%
23% of the team's end-zone targets
Hunter HenryTE
10%−24%

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Packers
Jordan Love
EPA per dropback +0.11
PROJECTED STARTER · Patriots
Drake Maye
EPA per dropback +0.08

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Packers: last 5 games

L17-20
atLions
Covered
W23-13
vsCowboys
Covered
W31-7
vsBears
Covered
W17-14
atBuccaneers
Push
L14-35
vsFalcons
Missed

Patriots: last 5 games

L24-30
atBears
Missed
W26-19
vsJets
Missed
W45-17
vsRaiders
Covered
W29-26
atBills
Covered
L6-35
atJaguars
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.04+0.06+0.09Entering week123456789Green Bay Packers · 1: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 2: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 3: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 4: +0.01Green Bay Packers · 5: +0.02Green Bay Packers · 6: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 7: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 8: +0.05Green Bay Packers · 9: +0.05New England Patriots · 1: +0.05New England Patriots · 2: +0.04New England Patriots · 3: +0.07New England Patriots · 4: +0.05New England Patriots · 5: +0.07New England Patriots · 6: +0.08New England Patriots · 7: +0.08New England Patriots · 8: +0.06New England Patriots · 9: +0.06
● Green Bay Packers● New England Patriots