BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Lions at Dolphins
LionsDetroit4-2away
BEAVER projects28
Hard Rock Stadium
DolphinsMiami1-5home
BEAVER projects20
BEAVERBEAVER gives DET 73% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Lions–––
Dolphins–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (DET–MIA)28–20–
SpreadDET −8.2No line
Total48.4–
MIA win chance27%–
DET by 8+
51%
DET by 1–7
23%
MIA by 1–7
16%
MIA by 8+
11%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Detroit Lions
PassingYds
Jared Goff QB192144–275
RushingYds
Jahmyr Gibbs RB6642–102
Sione Vaki RB51–17
ReceivingRecYds
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR5.94–76336–89
Jameson Williams WR3.52–54324–66
Sam LaPorta TE3.52–53822–59
Jahmyr Gibbs RB3.92–52817–44
Isaac TeSlaa WR–165–34
Miami Dolphins
PassingYds
Malik Willis QB15299–223
RushingYds
Ollie Gordon II RB3518–57▲
Malik Willis QB2510–44
Jaylen Wright RB103–30
ReceivingRecYds
Caleb Douglas WR2.51–33718–59
Malik Washington WR3.12–52914–43
Greg Dulcich TE2.41–3249–37
Chris Bell WR–133–27
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR–92–21

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.043 #12Offense EPA / play−0.004 #15
+0.023 #21Defense EPA / play allowed+0.074 #30
+2.8% #8Offense success rate−1.0% #19
−0.4% #13Defense success rate allowed+4.8% #32
+0.072 #9Passing EPA / dropback−0.015 #17
+0.033 #23Pass defense EPA allowed+0.107 #30
+0.023 #13Rushing EPA / carry+0.018 #16
+0.007 #20Rush defense EPA allowed+0.046 #27
+0.058 #8Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.020 #20
−0.017 #14Early-down EPA allowed+0.043 #27
Scoring and special teams
+4.4 #2Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.3 #29
+2.1 #25Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.9 #23
+0.55 #7Special teams EPA / game−0.28 #21

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr GibbsRB
33%−33%
76% of the team's carries inside the 10
25%−28%
27% of the team's end-zone targets
18%−34%
25% of the team's end-zone targets
Sam LaPortaTE
15%−33%
21% of the team's end-zone targets · Dolphins have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Isaac TeSlaaWR
10%−32%
27% of the team's end-zone targets
Joshua DobbsQB
7.6%−20%
Miami Dolphins
19%−18%
51% of the team's carries inside the 10
14%−18%
100% of the team's end-zone targets
Malik WillisQB
12%−21%
11%−16%
11%−20%
21% of the team's targets
9.3%−17%
25% of the team's end-zone targets

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Lions
Jared Goff
EPA per dropback +0.15
PROJECTED STARTER · Dolphins
Malik Willis
EPA per dropback −0.06

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Lions: last 5 games

W20-17
vsPackers
Missed
W45-21
atCardinals
Covered
L26-32
atPanthers
Missed
W31-24
vsJets
Push
L31-41
atBills
Missed

Dolphins: last 5 games

W28-25
atJets
Covered
L24-31
vsBengals
Push
L10-15
atVikings
Covered
L10-24
vsChiefs
Missed
L13-35
at49ers
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.10−0.06−0.02+0.02+0.07Entering week123456789Detroit Lions · 1: +0.05Detroit Lions · 2: +0.05Detroit Lions · 3: +0.02Detroit Lions · 4: +0.03Detroit Lions · 5: +0.00Detroit Lions · 6: +0.02Detroit Lions · 7: +0.03Detroit Lions · 8: +0.02Detroit Lions · 9: +0.02Miami Dolphins · 1: −0.02Miami Dolphins · 2: −0.06Miami Dolphins · 3: −0.06Miami Dolphins · 4: −0.07Miami Dolphins · 5: −0.07Miami Dolphins · 6: −0.09Miami Dolphins · 7: −0.09Miami Dolphins · 8: −0.08Miami Dolphins · 9: −0.08
● Detroit Lions● Miami Dolphins