BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Broncos at Panthers
BroncosDenver5-2away
BEAVER projects23
Bank of America Stadium
PanthersCarolina3-3home
BEAVER projects21
BEAVERBEAVER gives DEN 57% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Broncos–––
Panthers–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (DEN–CAR)23–21–
SpreadDEN −2.4No line
Total44.1–
CAR win chance43%–
DEN by 8+
34%
DEN by 1–7
24%
CAR by 1–7
21%
CAR by 8+
21%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Denver Broncos
PassingYds
Bo Nix QB161102–236
RushingYds
J.K. Dobbins RB4526–70▲
Jonah Coleman RB2411–47
RJ Harvey RB167–32
ReceivingRecYds
Jaylen Waddle WR3.42–43419–49
Courtland Sutton WR2.31–32613–45
RJ Harvey RB2.82–4199–32
Marvin Mims Jr. WR2.21–2155–30
Evan Engram TE1.61–2133–26
Carolina Panthers
PassingYds
Bryce Young QB153118–252
RushingYds
Chuba Hubbard RB4626–73
Bryce Young QB81–15
AJ Dillon RB82–22
ReceivingRecYds
Tetairoa McMillan WR4.63–55332–72
Jalen Coker WR3.82–54023–63
Darren Waller TE2.21–2189–34
John Metchie III WR1.81–2144–28
Tommy Tremble TE1.61–2123–24

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.003 #14Offense EPA / play+0.034 #13
−0.061 #3Defense EPA / play allowed+0.038 #27
−2.6% #26Offense success rate+0.1% #15
−4.3% #3Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #23
−0.030 #20Passing EPA / dropback+0.027 #13
−0.110 #3Pass defense EPA allowed+0.030 #22
+0.049 #9Rushing EPA / carry+0.029 #11
+0.016 #22Rush defense EPA allowed+0.042 #26
+0.010 #15Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.080 #4
−0.034 #7Early-down EPA allowed+0.025 #23
Scoring and special teams
−0.6 #19Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.3 #14
−2.6 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.2 #27
−0.14 #18Special teams EPA / game−0.57 #26

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Denver Broncos
J.K. DobbinsRB
24%−17%
57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
RJ HarveyRB
19%−28%
Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
13%−17%
Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
12%−20%
23% of the team's targets
11%−17%
44% of the team's end-zone targets
Bo NixQB
9.1%−19%
Carolina Panthers
24%−18%
72% of the team's carries inside the 10
14%−27%
30% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
12%−16%
22% of the team's end-zone targets
Jalen CokerWR
11%−29%
21% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
8.6%−18%
7.7%−24%
Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Broncos
Bo Nix
EPA per dropback +0.01
PROJECTED STARTER · Panthers
Bryce Young
EPA per dropback −0.06

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Broncos: last 5 games

W30-16
atCardinals
Covered
W17-14
vsSeahawks
Covered
W23-17
atChargers
Covered
L14-24
at49ers
Missed
W30-26
vsRams
Covered

Panthers: last 5 games

L13-43
vsBuccaneers
Missed
W25-14
atEagles
Covered
W32-26
vsLions
Covered
L18-21
atBrowns
Missed
W34-3
atFalcons
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.09−0.05−0.01+0.03+0.07Entering week123456789Denver Broncos · 1: +0.05Denver Broncos · 2: +0.00Denver Broncos · 3: +0.02Denver Broncos · 4: +0.03Denver Broncos · 5: +0.03Denver Broncos · 6: +0.04Denver Broncos · 7: +0.04Denver Broncos · 8: +0.06Denver Broncos · 9: +0.06Carolina Panthers · 1: −0.06Carolina Panthers · 2: −0.08Carolina Panthers · 3: −0.02Carolina Panthers · 4: −0.04Carolina Panthers · 5: −0.01Carolina Panthers · 6: −0.01Carolina Panthers · 7: +0.01Carolina Panthers · 8: −0.00Carolina Panthers · 9: −0.00
● Denver Broncos● Carolina Panthers