BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Browns at Saints
BrownsCleveland5-2away
BEAVER projects21
Caesars Superdome, indoors
SaintsNew Orleans2-5home
BEAVER projects23
BEAVERBEAVER gives NO 58% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Browns–––
Saints–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (CLE–NO)21–23–
SpreadNO −2.6No line
Total44.2–
NO win chance58%–
CLE by 8+
21%
CLE by 1–7
21%
NO by 1–7
24%
NO by 8+
34%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Cleveland Browns
PassingYds
Deshaun Watson QB147117–227
RushingYds
Quinshon Judkins RB4828–77▲
Audric Estimé RB2511–47
Deshaun Watson QB228–34
ReceivingRecYds
KC Concepcion WR4.02–53621–57
Denzel Boston WR2.72–33518–58
Harold Fannin Jr. TE3.42–43318–46
Jerry Jeudy WR2.21–32210–38
Dylan Sampson RB1.71–2122–24
New Orleans Saints
PassingYds
Tyler Shough QB175129–255
RushingYds
Alvin Kamara RB2410–38
Kendre Miller RB218–43
Tyler Shough QB144–26
ReceivingRecYds
Chris Olave WR5.44–76443–84
Devaughn Vele WR3.42–53621–53
Juwan Johnson TE2.82–42513–35
Alvin Kamara RB2.62–4147–24
Bryce Lance WR1.31–2133–28

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.085 #30Offense EPA / play−0.040 #24
−0.048 #4Defense EPA / play allowed+0.026 #22
−3.8% #30Offense success rate−1.2% #20
−2.3% #5Defense success rate allowed+2.6% #29
−0.118 #30Passing EPA / dropback−0.023 #18
−0.079 #5Pass defense EPA allowed+0.016 #19
−0.044 #22Rushing EPA / carry−0.084 #29
−0.006 #15Rush defense EPA allowed+0.037 #25
−0.069 #28Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.075 #29
−0.046 #3Early-down EPA allowed+0.025 #21
Scoring and special teams
−3.8 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.3 #25
−0.8 #12Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.0 #24
−0.46 #23Special teams EPA / game−1.07 #32

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Cleveland Browns
24%−17%
62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
16%−13%
44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
14%−15%
21% of the team's end-zone targets · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
14%−15%
71% of the team's end-zone targets · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
13%−19%
22% of the team's targets · Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
12%−9%
Browns projected for 21 points, 2 more than usual
New Orleans Saints
Chris OlaveWR
23%−24%
23% of the team's end-zone targets · Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual
20%−17%
43% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual
Alvin KamaraRB
19%−20%
Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual
18%−29%
35% of the team's end-zone targets · Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual
Tyler ShoughQB
16%−23%
Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual
14%−18%
Saints projected for 23 points, 3 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Browns
Deshaun Watson
EPA per dropback −0.07
PROJECTED STARTER · Saints
Tyler Shough
EPA per dropback −0.03

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Browns: last 5 games

W27-24
atTitans
Covered
W13-10
vsRavens
Covered
L12-17
atJets
Missed
W27-24
vsSteelers
Covered
W21-18
vsPanthers
Covered

Saints: last 5 games

L10-16
vsSteelers
Missed
W34-27
atGiants
Covered
L13-23
vsVikings
Missed
L24-45
vsFalcons
Missed
L27-35
vsRaiders
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.13−0.10−0.06−0.03+0.01Entering week123456789Cleveland Browns · 1: −0.07Cleveland Browns · 2: −0.12Cleveland Browns · 3: −0.09Cleveland Browns · 4: −0.06Cleveland Browns · 5: −0.04Cleveland Browns · 6: −0.05Cleveland Browns · 7: −0.04Cleveland Browns · 8: −0.04Cleveland Browns · 9: −0.04New Orleans Saints · 1: −0.04New Orleans Saints · 2: −0.04New Orleans Saints · 3: −0.02New Orleans Saints · 4: −0.04New Orleans Saints · 5: −0.07New Orleans Saints · 6: −0.08New Orleans Saints · 7: −0.06New Orleans Saints · 8: −0.07New Orleans Saints · 9: −0.07
● Cleveland Browns● New Orleans Saints