BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Bengals at Falcons
BengalsCincinnati4-2away
BEAVER projects25
Bernabeu
FalconsAtlanta3-4neutral site
BEAVER projects22
BEAVERBEAVER gives CIN 57% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Bengals–––
Falcons–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (CIN–ATL)25–22–
SpreadCIN −2.5No line
Total46.9–
ATL win chance43%–
CIN by 8+
34%
CIN by 1–7
24%
ATL by 1–7
21%
ATL by 8+
21%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Cincinnati Bengals
PassingYds
Joe Burrow QB185139–259
RushingYds
Chase Brown RB4124–64
Samaje Perine RB156–29
Joe Burrow QB80–17
ReceivingRecYds
Ja'Marr Chase WR5.33–75735–78
Tee Higgins WR4.53–55330–73
Chase Brown RB3.32–41910–28
Dohnte Meyers WR1.61–2133–28
Mike Gesicki TE–133–26
Atlanta Falcons
PassingYds
Michael Penix Jr. QB173127–244
RushingYds
Bijan Robinson RB6343–101
Brian Robinson RB166–35
Khalil Herbert RB125–27
ReceivingRecYds
Drake London WR4.83–65834–83
Kyle Pitts TE3.12–43117–46
Bijan Robinson RB2.92–42010–35
Jahan Dotson WR–185–35
Zachariah Branch WR–40–17

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.053 #9Offense EPA / play−0.038 #21
+0.007 #18Defense EPA / play allowed−0.039 #7
+3.2% #4Offense success rate+0.4% #13
+0.6% #22Defense success rate allowed−0.8% #8
+0.050 #11Passing EPA / dropback−0.086 #26
−0.005 #18Pass defense EPA allowed−0.064 #7
+0.023 #14Rushing EPA / carry+0.018 #15
+0.001 #19Rush defense EPA allowed−0.037 #5
+0.013 #12Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.000 #17
+0.013 #20Early-down EPA allowed−0.034 #8
Scoring and special teams
+2.6 #5Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.2 #15
+0.5 #17Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.9 #20
+0.04 #16Special teams EPA / game−0.78 #31

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase BrownRB
23%−26%
58% of the team's carries inside the 10
22%−27%
34% of the team's end-zone targets
Tee HigginsWR
20%−29%
22% of the team's targets
14%−13%
Mike GesickiTE
11%−24%
21% of the team's end-zone targets
7.3%−25%
Atlanta Falcons
29%−23%
69% of the team's carries inside the 10
Drake LondonWR
15%−18%
26% of the team's end-zone targets
13%−16%
Kyle PittsTE
12%−22%
26% of the team's end-zone targets
10%−19%
Jahan DotsonWR
9.2%−13%
26% of the team's end-zone targets

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Bengals
Joe Burrow
EPA per dropback +0.09
PROJECTED STARTER · Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Bengals: last 5 games

W35-13
atRavens
Covered
W31-24
atDolphins
Push
L17-22
vsJaguars
Missed
L27-30
atSteelers
Missed
W20-6
atTexans
Covered

Falcons: last 5 games

W29-20
vs49ers
Covered
L23-31
vsBears
Missed
L23-30
vsRavens
Missed
W45-24
atSaints
Covered
W35-14
atPackers
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.06−0.03−0.00+0.02+0.05Entering week123456789Cincinnati Bengals · 1: −0.05Cincinnati Bengals · 2: −0.00Cincinnati Bengals · 3: +0.02Cincinnati Bengals · 4: +0.03Cincinnati Bengals · 5: +0.01Cincinnati Bengals · 6: +0.04Cincinnati Bengals · 7: +0.03Cincinnati Bengals · 8: +0.05Cincinnati Bengals · 9: +0.05Atlanta Falcons · 1: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 2: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 3: −0.05Atlanta Falcons · 4: −0.02Atlanta Falcons · 5: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 6: +0.01Atlanta Falcons · 7: −0.02Atlanta Falcons · 8: +0.00Atlanta Falcons · 9: +0.00
● Cincinnati Bengals● Atlanta Falcons