BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 9 › Bills at Vikings
BillsBuffalo5-1away
BEAVER projects24
U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors
VikingsMinnesota6-0home
BEAVER projects24
BEAVERBEAVER gives MIN 52% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Bills–––
Vikings–––

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (BUF–MIN)24–24–
SpreadMIN −0.7No line
Total47.7–
MIN win chance52%–
BUF by 8+
26%
BUF by 1–7
22%
MIN by 1–7
23%
MIN by 8+
29%

BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Buffalo Bills
PassingYds
Josh Allen QB159127–220
RushingYds
James Cook RB6641–98
Josh Allen QB2714–48
Ty Johnson RB60–15
ReceivingRecYds
Khalil Shakir WR3.82–53521–52
DJ Moore WR2.71–42915–43
Dalton Kincaid TE2.92–42814–42
Keon Coleman WR2.21–22412–38
Ty Johnson RB1.91–2134–24
Minnesota Vikings
PassingYds
Kyler Murray QB164100–216
RushingYds
Aaron Jones RB4428–72▲
Jordan Mason RB3719–64▲
Kyler Murray QB228–35
ReceivingRecYds
Justin Jefferson WR4.12–54528–69
T.J. Hockenson TE3.12–42613–41
Jordan Addison WR2.31–32511–44
Jauan Jennings WR–163–33
Aaron Jones RB2.21–293–19

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.119 #1Offense EPA / play−0.085 #29
+0.040 #29Defense EPA / play allowed−0.114 #2
+3.5% #3Offense success rate−4.3% #32
+2.1% #26Defense success rate allowed−5.0% #2
+0.154 #1Passing EPA / dropback−0.091 #27
+0.020 #21Pass defense EPA allowed−0.165 #1
+0.082 #4Rushing EPA / carry−0.068 #27
+0.059 #29Rush defense EPA allowed−0.063 #3
+0.084 #3Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.062 #26
+0.025 #22Early-down EPA allowed−0.094 #1
Scoring and special teams
+6.0 #1Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.8 #26
+2.1 #26Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.6 #1
+0.59 #6Special teams EPA / game−0.21 #20

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Buffalo Bills
James CookRB
33%−32%
52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills projected for 24 points, 3 fewer than usual
Josh AllenQB
29%−26%
36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills projected for 24 points, 3 fewer than usual
DJ MooreWR
12%−27%
25% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
11%−31%
21% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Keon ColemanWR
11%−33%
26% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
11%−27%
Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.2 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Bills projected for 24 points, 3 fewer than usual
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron JonesRB
20%−13%
62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vikings projected for 24 points, 2 more than usual
Jordan MasonRB
15%−10%
37% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vikings projected for 24 points, 2 more than usual
14%−22%
41% of the team's end-zone targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
13%−26%
32% of the team's end-zone targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
11%−22%
Vikings projected for 24 points, 2 more than usual
10%−21%
24% of the team's end-zone targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Bills
Josh Allen
EPA per dropback +0.13
PROJECTED STARTER · Vikings
Kyler Murray
EPA per dropback −0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Bills: last 5 games

W33-30
atRaiders
Missed
W37-34
atRams
Covered
L26-29
vsPatriots
Missed
W24-16
vsChargers
Covered
W41-31
vsLions
Covered

Vikings: last 5 games

W16-10
vsColts
Missed
W23-13
atSaints
Covered
W15-10
vsDolphins
Missed
W23-16
atBuccaneers
Covered
W9-3
atBears
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.05+0.08+0.11Entering week123456789Buffalo Bills · 1: +0.06Buffalo Bills · 2: +0.08Buffalo Bills · 3: +0.11Buffalo Bills · 4: +0.09Buffalo Bills · 5: +0.07Buffalo Bills · 6: +0.08Buffalo Bills · 7: +0.08Buffalo Bills · 8: +0.08Buffalo Bills · 9: +0.08Minnesota Vikings · 1: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 2: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 3: +0.02Minnesota Vikings · 4: +0.02Minnesota Vikings · 5: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 6: +0.03Minnesota Vikings · 7: +0.03Minnesota Vikings · 8: +0.03Minnesota Vikings · 9: +0.03
● Buffalo Bills● Minnesota Vikings