BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Eagles at Commanders
EaglesPhiladelphia2-5away
BEAVER projects18
Northwest Stadium
CommandersWashington1-4-1home
BEAVER projects23
BEAVEROver 40.5, leanleanWAS −4.5, leanleanBEAVER gives WAS 65% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Eagles
Commanders

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 40.5, lean1.0 points off the line
  • WAS −4.5 lean, 0.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (PHI–WAS)18–23–
SpreadWAS −5.0WAS −4.5WAS −4.5
Total41.540.5Over 40.5
WAS win chance65%−205
PHI by 8+
16%
PHI by 1–7
19%
WAS by 1–7
24%
WAS by 8+
41%

Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Commanders (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Philadelphia Eagles
PassingYds
Tanner McKee QB202159–256
RushingYds
Saquon Barkley RB4624–76▲
Dameon Pierce RB188–39
Elijah Mitchell RB124–28
ReceivingRecYds
DeVonta Smith WR4.83–65532–80
Dallas Goedert TE3.82–53718–54
Makai Lemon WR3.32–52813–44
Dontayvion Wicks WR2.41–42710–44
Marquise Brown WR1.61–2173–33
Washington Commanders
PassingYds
Jayden Daniels QB199146–242
RushingYds
Jayden Daniels QB4425–65
Rachaad White RB3917–64
Austin Ekeler RB125–33
ReceivingRecYds
Stefon Diggs WR4.02–63920–61
Terry McLaurin WR2.82–43117–56
Chig Okonkwo TE3.12–53015–48
Antonio Williams WR2.51–42711–49
Treylon Burks WR1.41–3204–41

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.060 #27Offense EPA / play−0.018 #17
−0.014 #13Defense EPA / play allowed+0.036 #25
−4.1% #31Offense success rate−2.1% #24
−0.6% #12Defense success rate allowed+2.4% #28
−0.078 #25Passing EPA / dropback−0.007 #16
−0.019 #12Pass defense EPA allowed+0.042 #25
−0.039 #21Rushing EPA / carry−0.033 #19
+0.000 #18Rush defense EPA allowed−0.002 #17
−0.079 #30Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.010 #14
−0.039 #5Early-down EPA allowed+0.002 #18
Scoring and special teams
−2.7 #27Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #20
−0.5 #14Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.0 #29
+0.24 #13Special teams EPA / game+0.42 #8

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Philadelphia Eagles
24%−11%
38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 4 fewer than usual
20%−21%
38% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 4 fewer than usual
18%−12%
23% of the team's end-zone targets · Commanders have allowed 1.0 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
17%−1%
40% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 4 fewer than usual
14%−16%
Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 4 fewer than usual
11%−2%
Vegas has the Eagles at about 18 points, 4 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Washington Commanders
41%+10%
A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
35%+6%
Stefon DiggsWR
25%+8%
21% of the team's targets
21%+10%
A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
17%Usual
Chig OkonkwoTE
16%+8%

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Eagles
Tanner McKee
EPA per dropback −0.10Not the usual starter
PROJECTED STARTER · Commanders
Jayden Daniels
EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Eagles: last 5 games

L21-38
vsCowboys
Missed
L14-25
vsPanthers
Missed
L17-19
vsJaguars
Covered
L20-24
vsRams
Missed
L7-27
atBears
Missed

Commanders: last 5 games

L17-23
at49ers
Covered
L27-27
vsGiants
Missed
L13-30
vsColts
Missed
W33-31
vsSeahawks
Covered
L20-37
atCowboys
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.07−0.03+0.01+0.05+0.10Entering week12345678Philadelphia Eagles · 1: +0.08Philadelphia Eagles · 2: +0.07Philadelphia Eagles · 3: +0.04Philadelphia Eagles · 4: +0.03Philadelphia Eagles · 5: +0.01Philadelphia Eagles · 6: −0.01Philadelphia Eagles · 7: −0.03Philadelphia Eagles · 8: −0.05Washington Commanders · 1: −0.04Washington Commanders · 2: −0.02Washington Commanders · 3: −0.05Washington Commanders · 4: −0.03Washington Commanders · 5: −0.03Washington Commanders · 6: −0.03Washington Commanders · 7: −0.06Washington Commanders · 8: −0.05
● Philadelphia Eagles● Washington Commanders