BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Patriots at Dolphins
PatriotsNew England4-3away
BEAVER projects25
Hard Rock Stadium
DolphinsMiami1-5home
BEAVER projects18
BEAVERUnder 44.5, leanleanMIA +7.5, leanleanBEAVER gives NE 71% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Patriots
Dolphins

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 44.5, lean0.9 points off the line
  • MIA +7.5 lean, 0.2 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (NE–MIA)25–18–
SpreadNE −7.3NE −7.5MIA +7.5
Total43.644.5Under 44.5
MIA win chance29%+310
NE by 8+
48%
NE by 1–7
23%
MIA by 1–7
17%
MIA by 8+
12%

Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Dolphins (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
New England Patriots
PassingYds
Drake Maye QB256209–266
RushingYds
Rhamondre Stevenson RB4426–62▲
Drake Maye QB2512–41
TreVeyon Henderson RB239–46
ReceivingRecYds
A.J. Brown WR4.33–65331–81
Hunter Henry TE3.22–53617–58
DeMario Douglas WR2.91–43011–53
Rhamondre Stevenson RB2.51–42110–35
Eli Raridon TE1.81–3206–40
Miami Dolphins
PassingYds
Malik Willis QB185131–241
RushingYds
Ollie Gordon II RB4324–65
Malik Willis QB2814–44
Jaylen Wright RB71–21
ReceivingRecYds
Caleb Douglas WR2.71–44020–65
Malik Washington WR3.42–53417–56
Greg Dulcich TE2.61–42710–45
Chris Bell WR1.31–3132–35
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR–40–16

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.050 #10Offense EPA / play−0.004 #15
−0.012 #14Defense EPA / play allowed+0.074 #30
+2.1% #10Offense success rate−1.0% #19
+0.1% #19Defense success rate allowed+4.8% #32
+0.118 #3Passing EPA / dropback−0.015 #17
−0.010 #14Pass defense EPA allowed+0.107 #30
−0.046 #23Rushing EPA / carry+0.018 #16
−0.005 #16Rush defense EPA allowed+0.046 #27
+0.027 #11Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.020 #20
+0.009 #19Early-down EPA allowed+0.043 #27
Scoring and special teams
+0.5 #13Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.3 #29
−2.7 #5Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.9 #23
−0.17 #19Special teams EPA / game−0.28 #21

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
New England Patriots
A.J. BrownWR
41%+4%
26% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
37%Usual
44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
26%+10%
22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Hunter HenryTE
25%▲ +13%
Dolphins have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Drake MayeQB
22%+2%
Vegas has the Patriots at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Eli RaridonTE
22%▲ +13%
23% of the team's end-zone targets · Dolphins have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Miami Dolphins
33%−2%
51% of the team's carries inside the 10
Malik WillisQB
24%−3%
20%Usual
100% of the team's end-zone targets
19%−2%
21% of the team's targets
Greg DulcichTE
14%−4%
Chris BellWR
12%−3%

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Patriots
Drake Maye
EPA per dropback +0.08
PROJECTED STARTER · Dolphins
Malik Willis
EPA per dropback −0.06

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Patriots: last 5 games

L24-30
atBears
Missed
W26-19
vsJets
Missed
W45-17
vsRaiders
Covered
W29-26
atBills
Covered
L6-35
atJaguars
Missed

Dolphins: last 5 games

W28-25
atJets
Covered
L24-31
vsBengals
Push
L10-15
atVikings
Covered
L10-24
vsChiefs
Missed
L13-35
at49ers
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.10−0.06−0.01+0.04+0.09Entering week12345678New England Patriots · 1: +0.05New England Patriots · 2: +0.04New England Patriots · 3: +0.07New England Patriots · 4: +0.05New England Patriots · 5: +0.07New England Patriots · 6: +0.08New England Patriots · 7: +0.08New England Patriots · 8: +0.06Miami Dolphins · 1: −0.02Miami Dolphins · 2: −0.06Miami Dolphins · 3: −0.06Miami Dolphins · 4: −0.07Miami Dolphins · 5: −0.07Miami Dolphins · 6: −0.09Miami Dolphins · 7: −0.09Miami Dolphins · 8: −0.08
● New England Patriots● Miami Dolphins