BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Vikings at Lions
VikingsMinnesota6-0away
BEAVER projects22
Ford Field, indoors
LionsDetroit4-2home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERDET −3, leanleanOver 46.5, leanleanBEAVER gives DET 61% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Vikings
Lions

BEAVER’s card

Lean
DET −3, lean0.6 points off the line
  • Over 46.5 lean, 0.2 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (MIN–DET)22–25–
SpreadDET −3.6DET −3DET −3
Total46.746.5Over 46.5
DET win chance61%−170
MIN by 8+
19%
MIN by 1–7
20%
DET by 1–7
24%
DET by 8+
37%

Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Lions (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Minnesota Vikings
PassingYds
Kyler Murray QB221182–281
RushingYds
Jordan Mason RB4425–72
Aaron Jones RB3922–66
Kyler Murray QB2310–35
ReceivingRecYds
Justin Jefferson WR4.43–65532–83
Jordan Addison WR2.81–43515–61
T.J. Hockenson TE3.42–53316–55
Jauan Jennings WR1.61–3194–38
Aaron Jones RB1.71–392–19
Detroit Lions
PassingYds
Jared Goff QB271216–315
RushingYds
Jahmyr Gibbs RB7649–108
Sione Vaki RB40–12
ReceivingRecYds
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR6.24–87244–107
Jameson Williams WR3.82–55230–82
Sam LaPorta TE3.93–64626–68
Jahmyr Gibbs RB4.23–63420–48
Isaac TeSlaa WR1.10–2174–34

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.085 #29Offense EPA / play+0.043 #12
−0.114 #2Defense EPA / play allowed+0.023 #21
−4.3% #32Offense success rate+2.8% #8
−5.0% #2Defense success rate allowed−0.4% #13
−0.091 #27Passing EPA / dropback+0.072 #9
−0.165 #1Pass defense EPA allowed+0.033 #23
−0.068 #27Rushing EPA / carry+0.023 #13
−0.063 #3Rush defense EPA allowed+0.007 #20
−0.062 #26Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.058 #8
−0.094 #1Early-down EPA allowed−0.017 #14
Scoring and special teams
−1.8 #26Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.4 #2
−5.6 #1Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #25
−0.21 #20Special teams EPA / game+0.55 #7

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Minnesota Vikings
34%+1%
41% of the team's end-zone targets
Jordan MasonRB
30%+2%
37% of the team's carries inside the 10
27%+1%
32% of the team's end-zone targets
Aaron JonesRB
25%Usual
62% of the team's carries inside the 10
23%+3%
Lions have allowed 0.9 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Kyler MurrayQB
17%+5%
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr GibbsRB
60%−7%
76% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual
41%−3%
27% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
37%−8%
25% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Sam LaPortaTE
35%−8%
21% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.2 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Isaac TeSlaaWR
17%−13%
27% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Brock WrightTE
7.9%−10%
Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.2 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Vegas has the Lions at about 25 points, 3 fewer than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Vikings
Kyler Murray
EPA per dropback −0.01
PROJECTED STARTER · Lions
Jared Goff
EPA per dropback +0.15

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Vikings: last 5 games

W16-10
vsColts
Missed
W23-13
atSaints
Covered
W15-10
vsDolphins
Missed
W23-16
atBuccaneers
Covered
W9-3
atBears
Covered

Lions: last 5 games

W20-17
vsPackers
Missed
W45-21
atCardinals
Covered
L26-32
atPanthers
Missed
W31-24
vsJets
Push
L31-41
atBills
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.00+0.01+0.03+0.04+0.06Entering week12345678Minnesota Vikings · 1: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 2: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 3: +0.02Minnesota Vikings · 4: +0.02Minnesota Vikings · 5: +0.01Minnesota Vikings · 6: +0.03Minnesota Vikings · 7: +0.03Minnesota Vikings · 8: +0.03Detroit Lions · 1: +0.05Detroit Lions · 2: +0.05Detroit Lions · 3: +0.02Detroit Lions · 4: +0.03Detroit Lions · 5: +0.00Detroit Lions · 6: +0.02Detroit Lions · 7: +0.03Detroit Lions · 8: +0.02
● Minnesota Vikings● Detroit Lions